ScoreProb
Second League Montenegro Round 16 2026

Berane vs Grbalj

Berane Home · Elo 1,479
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Grbalj Away · Elo 1,529
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Grbalj win
Berane win
28.5%
Draw
25.4%
Grbalj winPick
46.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.9%
No49.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%

How much we know

Berane history39 matches
Grbalj history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Grbalj are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Grbalj are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,479. On rating alone Grbalj would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Grbalj score more

    1.21 goals a game over 39 matches for Berane, against 1.50 over 58 for Grbalj.

  • Berane concede fewer

    Berane concede 1.00 a game, Grbalj 1.28.

  • Grbalj games more often go over 2.5 goals

    36% of Berane matches, against 45% for Grbalj. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Berane
Grbalj@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1478.9
ELO
1529.3
39
ELO · Matches
58
1478.9
Current Team ELO
1529.3
1529.3
Current Opponent ELO
1478.9
-50.47
Current ELO Difference
50.47
0.43
Expected score
0.57
39
History Matches
58
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
48.27
Overperformance
51.56
-0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.60
0.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.20
0.90
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
58
1.36
PPG
1.52
33.3%
Win rate
41.4%
35.9%
Draw rate
27.6%
30.8%
Loss rate
31.0%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
35.9%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
30
1.30
PPG
1.07
35.0%
Win rate
26.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
26.7%
40.0%
Loss rate
46.7%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
35.0%
Over 2.5 rate
36.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
20
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.21
Goals for per game
1.50
64.1%
Scoring rate
81.0%
41.0%
BTTS rate
62.1%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.13
70.0%
Scoring rate
73.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
58
1.21
Goals Mean
1.50
1.16
Goals Std
1.09
64.1%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
41.0%
Scored 2+ rate
46.6%
7.7%
Scored 3+ rate
17.2%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.28
59.0%
Conceding rate
79.3%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.47
75.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
58
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.04
Conceded Std
1.05
28.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.8%
12.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
35.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
41.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
35.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
41.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
58
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.59
0.18
Stability score
1.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
58
9
Lead Matches
18
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.93
7
Trailing Matches
20
28.6%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.88
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
26
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
12
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
3
Competition Season Count
6
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.46
—
Portability PPG Range
0.93
—
Portability Score
51.87
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-50.47
PPG-0.16
GF-0.29
GA-0.28
PPG-2.00
PPG0.23
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate20.3%
Failed-to-score rate16.9%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate3.3%
History Matches-19
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate20.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.36
History Matches-19
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-1.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches-19
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-19
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO-50.47
Current Opponent ELO50.47
Current ELO Difference-100.9
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-19
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Berane

L
Zeta5–2Berane25 Oct · away
Pick: Zeta 43% · hit
L
Berane0–5Jedinstvo15 Oct · home
Pick: Jedinstvo 39% · hit
L
Berane1–2Jedinstvo4 Oct · home
Pick: Jedinstvo 38% · hit
L
Lovćen3–2Berane29 Aug · away
Pick: Lovćen 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Grbalj

L
Zeta1–0Grbalj4 Oct · away
Pick: Zeta 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Berane and Grbalj meet in Second League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Berane win 28.5%, draw 25.4%, Grbalj win 46.1%. The pick is Grbalj win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.3%. Both teams to score: 50.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.