ScoreProb
Second League Montenegro Round 16 2026

Mladost Lješkopolje vs Mogren

Mladost Lješkopolje Home · Elo 1,511
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mogren Away · Elo 1,499
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mladost Lješkopolje win
Mladost Lješkopolje winPick
65.8%
Draw
17.0%
Mogren win
17.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.1%
No50.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.1%
Under 2.536.9%

How much we know

Mladost Lješkopolje history54 matches
Mogren history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Mladost Lješkopolje are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,511 against 1,499. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Mogren score far more

    1.17 goals a game over 54 matches for Mladost Lješkopolje, against 2.00 over 2 for Mogren.

  • Defences are close

    Mladost Lješkopolje concede 1.41 a game, Mogren 1.50.

  • Mogren games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Mladost Lješkopolje matches, against 100% for Mogren. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mladost Lješkopolje
Mogren@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1511.1
ELO
1499.2
54
ELO · Matches
2
1511.1
Current Team ELO
1499.2
1499.2
Current Opponent ELO
1511.1
11.87
Current ELO Difference
-11.87
0.52
Expected score
0.48
54
History Matches
2
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.02
51.13
Overperformance
49.82
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
2.60
PPG
1.50
2.60
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.50
80.0%
Win rate
50.0%
10
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
2
1.28
PPG
1.50
35.2%
Win rate
50.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
0.0%
42.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
64.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
1
1.57
PPG
3.00
42.9%
Win rate
100.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
0.0%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
28
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.17
Goals for per game
2.00
61.1%
Scoring rate
100.0%
42.6%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.29
Goals for per game
3.00
71.4%
Scoring rate
100.0%
53.6%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
2
1.17
Goals Mean
2.00
1.30
Goals Std
1.00
61.1%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
29.6%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
3.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.41
Goals against per game
1.50
72.2%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
2
1.41
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.38
Conceded Std
0.50
37.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
18.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
2
0.97
Result entropy
0.63
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.50
3.03
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
2
12
Lead Matches
1
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
1.00
15
Trailing Matches
0
20.0%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
1.50
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
38
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
14
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
4
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.12
Portability PPG Std
—
0.24
Portability PPG Range
—
80.72
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO11.87
PPG-0.22
GF-0.83
GA-0.09
PPG1.50
PPG-1.43
PPG1.10
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches52
Clean-sheet rate27.8%
Failed-to-score rate38.9%
History Matches27
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate28.6%
History Matches52
Goals Mean-0.83
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.39
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Goals Mean-1.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.66
History Matches52
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std0.88
Clean-sheet rate27.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate18.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches52
Result entropy0.34
Goal Difference Std0.45
Stability score-33.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.09
Eligible Matches52
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches15
Halftime Coverage Matches52
First Half Goals For Mean-1.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches38
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match1.43
Current Team ELO11.87
Current Opponent ELO-11.87
Current ELO Difference23.73
Expected score0.03
History Matches52
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance1.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mladost Lješkopolje

D
Rudar1–1Mladost Lješkopolje25 Oct · away
Pick: Rudar 41% · missed
W
Mladost Lješkopolje2–1Lovćen6 Oct · home
Pick: Mladost Lješkopolje 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mogren

W
Iskra3–4Mogren25 Oct · away
Pick: Iskra 52% · missed
D
Mogren1–1Kom4 Oct · home
Pick: Mogren 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mladost Lješkopolje and Mogren meet in Second League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Mladost Lješkopolje win 65.8%, draw 17.0%, Mogren win 17.2%. The pick is Mladost Lješkopolje win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.1%. Both teams to score: 49.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.