ScoreProb
Second League Montenegro Round 16 2026

Kom vs Rudar

Kom Home · Elo 1,447
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rudar Away · Elo 1,471
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rudar win
Kom win
36.6%
Draw
22.7%
Rudar winPick
40.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.0%
No49.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.0%
Under 2.548.0%

How much we know

Kom history55 matches
Rudar history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Rudar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,447 against 1,471. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.31 goals a game over 55 matches for Kom, against 1.34 over 61 for Rudar.

  • Defences are close

    Kom concede 1.40 a game, Rudar 1.34.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Kom matches, against 51% for Rudar. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kom
Rudar@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1447.3
ELO
1471.2
55
ELO · Matches
61
1447.3
Current Team ELO
1471.2
1471.2
Current Opponent ELO
1447.3
-23.84
Current ELO Difference
23.84
0.47
Expected score
0.53
55
History Matches
61
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.03
46.61
Overperformance
47.66
-0.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.80
0.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.70
0.80
Goals for per game
1.50
2.00
Goals against per game
0.90
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.63
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
61
1.27
PPG
1.30
36.4%
Win rate
36.1%
18.2%
Draw rate
21.3%
45.5%
Loss rate
42.6%
70.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
50.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.8%
30.9%
Over 3.5 rate
29.5%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
33
1.64
PPG
0.88
46.4%
Win rate
21.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
24.2%
28.6%
Loss rate
54.5%
60.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
35.7%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
28
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.34
69.1%
Scoring rate
62.3%
45.5%
BTTS rate
41.0%
1.32
Goals for per game
0.91
67.9%
Scoring rate
57.6%
35.7%
BTTS rate
42.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
61
1.31
Goals Mean
1.34
1.26
Goals Std
1.50
69.1%
Scored 1+ rate
62.3%
34.5%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
18.2%
Scored 3+ rate
16.4%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
0.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
1.34
65.5%
Conceding rate
68.9%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.73
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.8%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
61
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.54
Conceded Std
1.30
38.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.3%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
30.9%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
42.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
30.9%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
42.4%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
61
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
2.13
Goal Difference Std
2.24
5.68
Stability score
3.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
60
14
Lead Matches
14
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.79
17
Trailing Matches
18
5.9%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.94
Rest days
77.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
40
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
14
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
4
Competition Season Count
7
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.70
0.12
Portability PPG Range
1.60
89.11
Portability Score
41.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-23.84
PPG-0.02
GF-0.04
GA0.06
PPG-1.50
PPG0.76
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate25.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate6.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.76
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.06
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score2.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.98
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate21.4%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.64
Portability PPG Range-1.48
Portability Score47.49
Rest days-0.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO-23.84
Current Opponent ELO23.84
Current ELO Difference-47.68
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.49

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kom

W
Kom2–1Lovćen25 Oct · home
Pick: Lovćen 42% · missed
L
Petrovac2–0Kom15 Oct · away
Pick: Petrovac 57% · hit
D
Mogren1–1Kom4 Oct · away
Pick: Mogren 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rudar

D
Rudar1–1Mladost Lješkopolje25 Oct · home
Pick: Rudar 41% · missed
L
Iskra1–0Rudar6 Oct · away
Pick: Iskra 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kom and Rudar meet in Second League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Kom win 36.6%, draw 22.7%, Rudar win 40.7%. The pick is Rudar win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.0%. Both teams to score: 51.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.