ScoreProb
Second League Montenegro Round 16 2026

Lovćen vs Iskra

Lovćen Home · Elo 1,480
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Iskra Away · Elo 1,557
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Iskra win
Lovćen win
34.3%
Draw
24.6%
Iskra winPick
41.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.4%
No48.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%

How much we know

Lovćen history59 matches
Iskra history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Iskra are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Iskra are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,557 against 1,480. On rating alone Iskra would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Iskra score more

    1.12 goals a game over 59 matches for Lovćen, against 1.40 over 63 for Iskra.

  • Iskra concede fewer

    Lovćen concede 1.37 a game, Iskra 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Lovćen matches, against 46% for Iskra. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lovćen
Iskra@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.7
ELO
1556.6
59
ELO · Matches
63
1479.7
Current Team ELO
1556.6
1556.6
Current Opponent ELO
1479.7
-76.86
Current ELO Difference
76.86
0.39
Expected score
0.61
59
History Matches
63
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
48.35
Overperformance
53.63
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.70
1.30
Goals for per game
1.80
1.30
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
63
1.34
PPG
1.60
37.3%
Win rate
42.9%
22.0%
Draw rate
31.7%
40.7%
Loss rate
25.4%
66.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.3%
44.1%
Over 2.5 rate
46.0%
23.7%
Over 3.5 rate
31.7%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
30
1.25
PPG
1.70
35.7%
Win rate
46.7%
17.9%
Draw rate
30.0%
46.4%
Loss rate
23.3%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
43.3%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
28
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.12
Goals for per game
1.40
64.4%
Scoring rate
73.0%
40.7%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.07
Goals for per game
1.30
60.7%
Scoring rate
80.0%
35.7%
BTTS rate
46.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
59
History Matches
63
1.12
Goals Mean
1.40
1.15
Goals Std
1.27
64.4%
Scored 1+ rate
73.0%
28.8%
Scored 2+ rate
38.1%
11.9%
Scored 3+ rate
17.5%
1.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.11
69.5%
Conceding rate
60.3%
1.43
Goals against per game
1.10
67.9%
Conceding rate
60.0%
2.50
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
59
History Matches
63
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.40
Conceded Std
1.16
39.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.9%
13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
1.43
Venue Conceded Mean
1.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
35.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
35.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
63
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.93
Goal Difference Std
1.76
2.88
Stability score
2.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
60
16
Lead Matches
17
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
64.7%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.75
17
Trailing Matches
15
17.6%
Non-loss rate
46.7%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
43
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
15
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.51
1.35
Portability PPG Range
1.33
46.58
Portability Score
49.72
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-76.86
PPG-0.26
GF-0.28
GA0.26
PPG0.00
PPG-0.45
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate8.6%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate19.3%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate4.1%
Conceded 3+ rate2.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.50
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score0.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.84
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate4.0%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.02
Portability Score-3.14
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.24
Current Team ELO-76.86
Current Opponent ELO76.86
Current ELO Difference-153.7
Expected score-0.22
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lovćen

L
Kom2–1Lovćen25 Oct · away
Pick: Lovćen 42% · missed
L
Lovćen1–5Jezero13 Oct · home
Pick: Jezero 43% · hit
L
Mladost Lješkopolje2–1Lovćen6 Oct · away
Pick: Mladost Lješkopolje 53% · hit
W
Lovćen3–2Berane29 Aug · home
Pick: Lovćen 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Iskra

L
Iskra3–4Mogren25 Oct · home
Pick: Iskra 52% · missed
L
Mladost DG4–0Iskra14 Oct · away
Pick: Mladost DG 51% · hit
W
Iskra1–0Rudar6 Oct · home
Pick: Iskra 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lovćen and Iskra meet in Second League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lovćen win 34.3%, draw 24.6%, Iskra win 41.1%. The pick is Iskra win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.7%. Both teams to score: 51.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.