ScoreProb
Premier League Ghana Round 10 2026

Berekum Chelsea vs Asante Kotoko

Berekum Chelsea Home · Elo 1,530
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Asante Kotoko Away · Elo 1,508
Golden City Park, Berekum Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Berekum Chelsea win
Berekum Chelsea winPick
35.4%
Draw
33.7%
Asante Kotoko win
30.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.0%
No55.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.8%
Under 2.562.2%

How much we know

Berekum Chelsea history54 matches
Asante Kotoko history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Berekum Chelsea are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,530 against 1,508. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.04 goals a game over 54 matches for Berekum Chelsea, against 1.13 over 60 for Asante Kotoko.

  • Defences are close

    Berekum Chelsea concede 1.02 a game, Asante Kotoko 0.92.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    37% of Berekum Chelsea matches, against 35% for Asante Kotoko. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Berekum Chelsea
Asante Kotoko@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.4
ELO
1507.9
54
ELO · Matches
60
1530.4
Current Team ELO
1507.9
1507.9
Current Opponent ELO
1530.4
22.50
Current ELO Difference
-22.50
0.53
Expected score
0.47
54
History Matches
60
0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
52.16
Overperformance
50.35
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.30
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
60
1.41
PPG
1.58
40.7%
Win rate
43.3%
18.5%
Draw rate
28.3%
40.7%
Loss rate
28.3%
55.6%
Over 1.5 rate
53.3%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
35.0%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
18.3%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
30
2.26
PPG
1.03
70.4%
Win rate
23.3%
14.8%
Draw rate
33.3%
14.8%
Loss rate
43.3%
48.1%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
29.6%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
27
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.04
Goals for per game
1.13
66.7%
Scoring rate
65.0%
42.6%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.37
Goals for per game
0.60
77.8%
Scoring rate
50.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
30.0%
54
History Matches
60
1.04
Goals Mean
1.13
0.96
Goals Std
1.24
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
65.0%
27.8%
Scored 2+ rate
26.7%
7.4%
Scored 3+ rate
11.7%
1.37
Venue Goals Mean
0.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
0.92
64.8%
Conceding rate
48.3%
0.59
Goals against per game
1.17
44.4%
Conceding rate
53.3%
54
History Matches
60
1.02
Conceded Mean
0.92
0.97
Conceded Std
1.19
25.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.7%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.7%
0.59
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
51.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
51.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
51.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
60
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.31
Goal Difference Std
1.68
4.98
Stability score
1.97
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
60
19
Lead Matches
19
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.86
9
Trailing Matches
13
0.0%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
168.0
Rest days
168.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
8
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
41
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
10
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.16
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.66
0.81
Portability PPG Range
1.61
59.44
Portability Score
43.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO22.50
PPG-0.18
GF-0.10
GA0.10
PPG1.23
PPG1.80
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.28
Scored 1+ rate1.7%
Scored 2+ rate1.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.38
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score3.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.70
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.31
Portability PPG Range-0.79
Portability Score16.18
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Current Team ELO22.50
Current Opponent ELO-22.50
Current ELO Difference45.01
Expected score0.06
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.47

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Berekum Chelsea

L
Basake Holy Stars1–0Berekum Chelsea4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Asante Kotoko

No earlier results with our pick yet

About this match

Berekum Chelsea and Asante Kotoko meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Golden City Park, Berekum. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Berekum Chelsea win 35.4%, draw 33.7%, Asante Kotoko win 30.9%. The pick is Berekum Chelsea win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.8%. Both teams to score: 45.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.