ScoreProb
Premier League Ghana 2026

Karela vs Vision

Karela Home · Elo 1,517
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vision Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Karela win
33.7%
DrawPick
40.9%
Vision win
25.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.2%
No55.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.532.9%
Under 2.567.1%

How much we know

Karela history52 matches
Vision history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.9%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,517 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.96 goals a game over 52 matches for Karela, against 0.97 over 64 for Vision.

  • Karela concede fewer

    Karela concede 0.87 a game, Vision 1.14.

  • Vision games more often go over 2.5 goals

    27% of Karela matches, against 41% for Vision. The model puts this match at 33% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Karela
Vision@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.0
ELO
1500.5
52
ELO · Matches
64
1517.0
Current Team ELO
1500.5
1500.5
Current Opponent ELO
1517.0
16.55
Current ELO Difference
-16.55
0.52
Expected score
0.48
52
History Matches
64
0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
51.38
Overperformance
50.39
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.30
1.00
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
64
1.48
PPG
1.19
40.4%
Win rate
29.7%
26.9%
Draw rate
29.7%
32.7%
Loss rate
40.6%
51.9%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
26.9%
Over 2.5 rate
40.6%
11.5%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
31
2.30
PPG
0.61
70.4%
Win rate
9.7%
18.5%
Draw rate
32.3%
11.1%
Loss rate
58.1%
63.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.1%
29.6%
Over 2.5 rate
32.3%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
16.1%
1.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
27
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.96
Goals for per game
0.97
63.5%
Scoring rate
57.8%
32.7%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.48
Goals for per game
0.55
88.9%
Scoring rate
41.9%
37.0%
BTTS rate
32.3%
52
History Matches
64
0.96
Goals Mean
0.97
0.90
Goals Std
1.03
63.5%
Scored 1+ rate
57.8%
26.9%
Scored 2+ rate
26.6%
5.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
0.55
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.87
Goals against per game
1.14
53.8%
Conceding rate
65.6%
0.56
Goals against per game
1.39
44.4%
Conceding rate
77.4%
52
History Matches
64
0.87
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.04
Conceded Std
1.06
21.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.9%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.4%
0.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
36.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.2%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
58.1%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
36.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.2%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
58.1%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
64
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.57
1.24
Stability score
1.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
64
17
Lead Matches
13
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.74
11
Trailing Matches
20
9.1%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
168.0
Rest days
168.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
11
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.36
37
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
10
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.16
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.46
0.06
Portability PPG Range
1.01
94.44
Portability Score
51.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO16.55
PPG0.29
GF-0.01
GA-0.28
PPG1.68
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate33.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.47
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate5.6%
Scored 2+ rate0.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.93
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score0.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate13.1%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.43
Portability PPG Range-0.95
Portability Score42.53
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match0.39
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.22
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.64
Current Team ELO16.55
Current Opponent ELO-16.55
Current ELO Difference33.11
Expected score0.05
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Karela

No earlier results with our pick yet

Vision

No earlier results with our pick yet

About this match

Karela and Vision meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Karela win 33.7%, draw 40.9%, Vision win 25.3%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 32.9%. Both teams to score: 44.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.