ScoreProb
Premier League Ghana Round 10 2026

Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions

Hearts of Oak Home · Elo 1,555
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Heart of Lions Away · Elo 1,505
WAFA Park, Sogakope Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Hearts of Oak win
33.8%
DrawPick
40.1%
Heart of Lions win
26.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.7%
No57.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.532.6%
Under 2.567.4%

How much we know

Hearts of Oak history50 matches
Heart of Lions history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hearts of Oak are rated 49 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,505. On rating alone Hearts of Oak would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Heart of Lions score more

    0.76 goals a game over 50 matches for Hearts of Oak, against 1.13 over 52 for Heart of Lions.

  • Hearts of Oak concede fewer

    Hearts of Oak concede 0.46 a game, Heart of Lions 0.98.

  • Heart of Lions games more often go over 2.5 goals

    14% of Hearts of Oak matches, against 42% for Heart of Lions. The model puts this match at 33% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hearts of Oak
Heart of Lions@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1555.0
ELO
1505.5
50
ELO · Matches
52
1555.0
Current Team ELO
1505.5
1505.5
Current Opponent ELO
1555.0
49.47
Current ELO Difference
-49.47
0.57
Expected score
0.43
50
History Matches
52
0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
53.85
Overperformance
49.79
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
0.80
Goals for per game
1.10
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
52
1.60
PPG
1.46
40.0%
Win rate
40.4%
40.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
34.6%
28.0%
Over 1.5 rate
55.8%
14.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
8.0%
Over 3.5 rate
17.3%
1.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
28
1.76
PPG
0.89
44.0%
Win rate
17.9%
44.0%
Draw rate
35.7%
12.0%
Loss rate
46.4%
20.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.7%
16.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
25
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.76
Goals for per game
1.13
50.0%
Scoring rate
67.3%
16.0%
BTTS rate
40.4%
0.84
Goals for per game
0.96
52.0%
Scoring rate
57.1%
16.0%
BTTS rate
46.4%
50
History Matches
52
0.76
Goals Mean
1.13
0.95
Goals Std
1.06
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
18.0%
Scored 2+ rate
30.8%
6.0%
Scored 3+ rate
13.5%
0.84
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.46
Goals against per game
0.98
34.0%
Conceding rate
59.6%
0.40
Goals against per game
1.36
28.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
50
History Matches
52
0.46
Conceded Mean
0.98
0.70
Conceded Std
1.08
12.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.6%
0.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
66.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
72.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
48.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
66.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
72.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
48.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
66.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
52
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.04
Goal Difference Std
1.49
3.98
Stability score
1.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
51
16
Lead Matches
18
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.87
6
Trailing Matches
14
16.7%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.32
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
168.0
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
19
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.01
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.02
Portability PPG Range
0.49
98.14
Portability Score
67.03
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO49.47
PPG0.14
GF-0.37
GA-0.52
PPG0.87
PPG0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate25.6%
Failed-to-score rate17.3%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate43.4%
Failed-to-score rate5.1%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.52
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate25.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.96
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.80
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score2.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.94
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate4.2%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate9.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.47
Portability Score31.12
Rest days-6.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO49.47
Current Opponent ELO-49.47
Current ELO Difference98.94
Expected score0.14
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hearts of Oak

No earlier results with our pick yet

Heart of Lions

W
Heart of Lions3–2Ashanti Gold4 Oct · home
Pick: Heart of Lions 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hearts of Oak and Heart of Lions meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at WAFA Park, Sogakope. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Hearts of Oak win 33.8%, draw 40.1%, Heart of Lions win 26.1%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 32.6%. Both teams to score: 42.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.