ScoreProb
AFC Champions League Two World Round 4 2026

BG Pathum United vs Wofoo Tai Po

BG Pathum United Home · Elo 1,606
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wofoo Tai Po Away · Elo 1,604
True BG Stadium, Patum Thani Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: BG Pathum United win
BG Pathum United winPick
58.0%
Draw
21.9%
Wofoo Tai Po win
20.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.0%
No41.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.7%
Under 2.537.3%

How much we know

BG Pathum United history75 matches
Wofoo Tai Po history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 12:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why BG Pathum United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,606 against 1,604. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Wofoo Tai Po score more

    1.71 goals a game over 75 matches for BG Pathum United, against 2.15 over 54 for Wofoo Tai Po.

  • BG Pathum United concede fewer

    BG Pathum United concede 1.11 a game, Wofoo Tai Po 1.50.

  • Wofoo Tai Po games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of BG Pathum United matches, against 69% for Wofoo Tai Po. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
BG Pathum United
Wofoo Tai Po
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1605.5
ELO
1604.4
75
ELO · Matches
54
1605.5
Current Team ELO
1604.4
1604.4
Current Opponent ELO
1605.5
1.11
Current ELO Difference
-1.11
0.50
Expected score
0.50
75
History Matches
54
0.07
Residual Mean
0.09
55.33
Overperformance
56.66
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.70
1.40
Goals for per game
2.30
0.70
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
90.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
54
1.75
PPG
1.85
49.3%
Win rate
53.7%
26.7%
Draw rate
24.1%
24.0%
Loss rate
22.2%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
90.7%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
68.5%
30.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
28
1.95
PPG
1.71
56.8%
Win rate
50.0%
24.3%
Draw rate
21.4%
18.9%
Loss rate
28.6%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
78.6%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
37
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.71
Goals for per game
2.15
84.0%
Scoring rate
90.7%
53.3%
BTTS rate
70.4%
1.95
Goals for per game
2.25
86.5%
Scoring rate
85.7%
48.6%
BTTS rate
67.9%
75
History Matches
54
1.71
Goals Mean
2.15
1.48
Goals Std
1.42
84.0%
Scored 1+ rate
90.7%
50.7%
Scored 2+ rate
63.0%
17.3%
Scored 3+ rate
40.7%
1.95
Venue Goals Mean
2.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.11
Goals against per game
1.50
65.3%
Conceding rate
79.6%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.68
59.5%
Conceding rate
82.1%
75
History Matches
54
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.07
Conceded Std
1.10
29.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.3%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.3%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
54
0.95
Result entropy
0.92
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.72
5.01
Stability score
7.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
54
32
Lead Matches
27
71.9%
Lead Win Rate
70.4%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.77
17
Trailing Matches
13
41.2%
Non-loss rate
53.8%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
30.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
92.97
Rest days
74.18
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.85
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
43
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
11
Competition Season Count
9
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.40
Portability PPG Range
1.17
52.17
Portability Score
55.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO1.11
PPG-0.11
GF-0.44
GA-0.39
PPG0.23
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate22.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches21
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches21
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches21
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score-2.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches21
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate1.5%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches21
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-3.29
Rest days18.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches9
Short Rest Points Per Match0.35
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Current Team ELO1.11
Current Opponent ELO-1.11
Current ELO Difference2.22
Expected score0.00
History Matches21
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

BG Pathum United

L
Chonburi FC1–0BG Pathum United2 Nov · away
Pick: BG Pathum United 55% · missed
W
Wofoo Tai Po0–3BG Pathum United29 Oct · away
Pick: BG Pathum United 49% · hit
W
BG Pathum United2–0Chiangrai United24 Oct · home
Pick: BG Pathum United 63% · hit
L
Khon Kaen United1–0BG Pathum United21 Oct · away
Pick: BG Pathum United 61% · missed
D
Sisaket United1–1BG Pathum United18 Oct · away
Pick: BG Pathum United 53% · missed

Wofoo Tai Po

L
Wofoo Tai Po0–3BG Pathum United29 Oct · home
Pick: BG Pathum United 49% · hit
W
Wofoo Tai Po4–2Kitchee24 Oct · home
Pick: Wofoo Tai Po 59% · hit
W
Wofoo Tai Po4–2Southern District19 Oct · home
Pick: Wofoo Tai Po 50% · hit
L
Wofoo Tai Po0–1Home United15 Oct · home
Pick: Home United 45% · hit
W
BC Rangers1–3Wofoo Tai Po4 Oct · away
Pick: Wofoo Tai Po 59% · hit

About this match

BG Pathum United and Wofoo Tai Po meet in AFC Champions League Two on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 12:15 UTC. The match is played at True BG Stadium, Patum Thani. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: BG Pathum United win 58.0%, draw 21.9%, Wofoo Tai Po win 20.1%. The pick is BG Pathum United win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.7%. Both teams to score: 59.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.