ScoreProb
AFC Champions League Two World Round 4 2026

Kitchee vs Phnom Penh Crown

Kitchee Home · Elo 1,614
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Phnom Penh Crown Away · Elo 1,576
Mong Kok Stadium, Hong Kong Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kitchee win
Kitchee winPick
40.8%
Draw
21.4%
Phnom Penh Crown win
37.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.4%
No41.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.5%
Under 2.534.5%

How much we know

Kitchee history45 matches
Phnom Penh Crown history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kitchee are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kitchee are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,614 against 1,576. On rating alone Kitchee would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Kitchee score more

    2.18 goals a game over 45 matches for Kitchee, against 1.95 over 57 for Phnom Penh Crown.

  • Defences are close

    Kitchee concede 1.24 a game, Phnom Penh Crown 1.30.

  • Kitchee games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of Kitchee matches, against 61% for Phnom Penh Crown. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kitchee
Phnom Penh Crown
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1614.1
ELO
1575.5
45
ELO · Matches
57
1614.1
Current Team ELO
1575.5
1575.5
Current Opponent ELO
1614.1
38.63
Current ELO Difference
-38.63
0.56
Expected score
0.44
45
History Matches
57
0.12
Residual Mean
0.05
58.65
Overperformance
53.82
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.90
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.26
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
57
2.04
PPG
1.84
62.2%
Win rate
56.1%
17.8%
Draw rate
15.8%
20.0%
Loss rate
28.1%
82.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
71.1%
Over 2.5 rate
61.4%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
40.4%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
32
1.83
PPG
1.81
56.5%
Win rate
53.1%
13.0%
Draw rate
21.9%
30.4%
Loss rate
25.0%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
73.9%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
47.8%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
23
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.18
Goals for per game
1.95
91.1%
Scoring rate
86.0%
57.8%
BTTS rate
59.6%
2.30
Goals for per game
2.06
91.3%
Scoring rate
84.4%
52.2%
BTTS rate
62.5%
45
History Matches
57
2.18
Goals Mean
1.95
1.37
Goals Std
1.43
91.1%
Scored 1+ rate
86.0%
62.2%
Scored 2+ rate
52.6%
40.0%
Scored 3+ rate
35.1%
2.30
Venue Goals Mean
2.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.24
Goals against per game
1.30
66.7%
Conceding rate
70.2%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.28
60.9%
Conceding rate
71.9%
45
History Matches
57
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.20
Conceded Std
1.15
35.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.4%
15.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.3%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
8.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
15.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
8.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
15.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
57
0.84
Result entropy
0.88
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.81
15.88
Stability score
11.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
57
23
Lead Matches
22
78.3%
Lead Win Rate
86.4%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.89
7
Trailing Matches
13
42.9%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
23.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
1.16
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.12
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.98
Rest days
172.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
9
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.56
18
Normal Rest History Matches
28
2.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.96
24
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.58
Portability PPG Range
0.33
67.70
Portability Score
78.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO38.63
PPG0.20
GF0.23
GA-0.05
PPG0.01
PPG-0.20
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-12
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate5.1%
Scored 2+ rate9.6%
Scored 3+ rate4.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.35
History Matches-12
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score4.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.24
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate4.4%
Trailing Win Rate5.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-10.86
Rest days-96.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match0.44
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO38.63
Current Opponent ELO-38.63
Current ELO Difference77.26
Expected score0.11
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kitchee

L
Phnom Penh Crown2–0Kitchee29 Oct · away
Pick: Phnom Penh Crown 50% · hit
L
Wofoo Tai Po4–2Kitchee24 Oct · away
Pick: Wofoo Tai Po 59% · hit
W
Warriors1–5Kitchee19 Oct · away
Pick: Warriors 52% · missed
D
Kuching FA1–1Kitchee15 Oct · away
Pick: Kuching FA 46% · missed
D
North District0–0Kitchee29 Aug · away
Pick: Kitchee 48% · missed

Phnom Penh Crown

L
Phnom Penh Crown0–1Kompong Dewa1 Nov · home
Pick: Phnom Penh Crown 68% · missed
W
Phnom Penh Crown2–0Kitchee29 Oct · home
Pick: Phnom Penh Crown 50% · hit
W
National Defense1–2Phnom Penh Crown24 Oct · away
Pick: Phnom Penh Crown 64% · hit
D
Phnom Penh Crown1–1Life Sihanoukville19 Oct · home
Pick: Phnom Penh Crown 73% · missed
W
Gangwon FC1–2Phnom Penh Crown15 Oct · away
Pick: Gangwon FC 51% · missed

About this match

Kitchee and Phnom Penh Crown meet in AFC Champions League Two on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. The match is played at Mong Kok Stadium, Hong Kong. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Kitchee win 40.8%, draw 21.4%, Phnom Penh Crown win 37.8%. The pick is Kitchee win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.5%. Both teams to score: 58.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.