ScoreProb
AFC Champions League Two World Round 4 2026

Svay Rieng vs Tampines Rovers

Svay Rieng Home · Elo 1,647
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tampines Rovers Away · Elo 1,609
Morodok Techo National Stadium, Phnom Penh Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Svay Rieng win
Svay Rieng winPick
60.3%
Draw
18.2%
Tampines Rovers win
21.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.3%
No37.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.1%
Under 2.529.9%

How much we know

Svay Rieng history72 matches
Tampines Rovers history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 12:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Svay Rieng are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Svay Rieng are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,647 against 1,609. On rating alone Svay Rieng would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Svay Rieng score more

    2.51 goals a game over 72 matches for Svay Rieng, against 2.20 over 59 for Tampines Rovers.

  • Defences are close

    Svay Rieng concede 1.22 a game, Tampines Rovers 1.25.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    74% of Svay Rieng matches, against 69% for Tampines Rovers. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 1 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Svay Rieng
Tampines Rovers
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1646.8
ELO
1609.4
72
ELO · Matches
59
1646.8
Current Team ELO
1609.4
1609.4
Current Opponent ELO
1646.8
37.34
Current ELO Difference
-37.34
0.55
Expected score
0.45
72
History Matches
59
0.10
Residual Mean
0.09
57.91
Overperformance
56.44
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.70
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.27
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.23
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
59
2.04
PPG
1.88
61.1%
Win rate
55.9%
20.8%
Draw rate
20.3%
18.1%
Loss rate
23.7%
93.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.4%
73.6%
Over 2.5 rate
69.5%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
44.1%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
31
1.95
PPG
1.81
56.8%
Win rate
54.8%
24.3%
Draw rate
16.1%
18.9%
Loss rate
29.0%
94.6%
Over 1.5 rate
87.1%
73.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.0%
43.2%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
37
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.51
Goals for per game
2.20
95.8%
Scoring rate
84.7%
68.1%
BTTS rate
61.0%
2.46
Goals for per game
2.16
97.3%
Scoring rate
87.1%
73.0%
BTTS rate
54.8%
72
History Matches
59
2.51
Goals Mean
2.20
1.57
Goals Std
1.72
95.8%
Scored 1+ rate
84.7%
68.1%
Scored 2+ rate
61.0%
45.8%
Scored 3+ rate
37.3%
2.46
Venue Goals Mean
2.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.22
Goals against per game
1.25
70.8%
Conceding rate
69.5%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.19
75.7%
Conceding rate
64.5%
72
History Matches
59
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.07
Conceded Std
1.27
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.5%
9.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.3%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
4.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.3%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.5%
2.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.9%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
4.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.3%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.5%
2.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.9%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
59
0.85
Result entropy
0.90
1.96
Goal Difference Std
2.22
14.73
Stability score
9.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
59
35
Lead Matches
21
82.9%
Lead Win Rate
90.5%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.92
17
Trailing Matches
11
41.2%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
1.26
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
1.25
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.32
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
165.0
Rest days
96.99
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
15
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.29
41
Normal Rest History Matches
35
2.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
15
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
7
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.61
1.16
Portability PPG Range
2.00
56.30
Portability Score
45.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO37.34
PPG0.16
GF0.31
GA-0.03
PPG0.14
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate11.1%
Scored 2+ rate7.0%
Scored 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.40
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score4.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.13
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate23.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.84
Portability Score11.30
Rest days68.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches8
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.38
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO37.34
Current Opponent ELO-37.34
Current ELO Difference74.68
Expected score0.11
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Svay Rieng

W
Tampines Rovers1–5Svay Rieng29 Oct · away
Pick: Svay Rieng 48% · hit
D
Svay Rieng2–2Visakha24 Oct · home
Pick: Svay Rieng 57% · missed
W
Svay Rieng4–1Boeung Ket18 Oct · home
Pick: Svay Rieng 57% · hit
D
Svay Rieng0–0Shanghai Shenhua15 Oct · home
Pick: Svay Rieng 43% · missed
L
Johor Darul Takzim FC6–0Svay Rieng8 Oct · away
Pick: Johor Darul Takzim FC 52% · hit

Tampines Rovers

D
Tampines Rovers0–0Geylang International1 Nov · home
Pick: Tampines Rovers 73% · missed
L
Tampines Rovers1–5Svay Rieng29 Oct · home
Pick: Svay Rieng 48% · hit
W
Albirex Niigata S2–3Tampines Rovers25 Oct · away
Pick: Tampines Rovers 48% · hit
W
Tampines Rovers4–1Young Lions18 Oct · home
Pick: Tampines Rovers 79% · hit
L
Tampines Rovers0–1Machida Zelvia15 Oct · home
Pick: Machida Zelvia 45% · hit

About this match

Svay Rieng and Tampines Rovers meet in AFC Champions League Two on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 12:15 UTC. The match is played at Morodok Techo National Stadium, Phnom Penh. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Svay Rieng win 60.3%, draw 18.2%, Tampines Rovers win 21.5%. The pick is Svay Rieng win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.1%. Both teams to score: 62.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.