ScoreProb
AFC Champions League Two World Round 4 2026

Home United vs Adelaide United

Home United Home · Elo 1,638
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Adelaide United Away · Elo 1,508
Jalan Besar Stadium, Kallang Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Home United win
Home United winPick
70.0%
Draw
14.6%
Adelaide United win
15.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.0%
No41.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.575.5%
Under 2.524.5%

How much we know

Home United history64 matches
Adelaide United history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (70.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Home United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Home United are rated 130 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,638 against 1,508. On rating alone Home United would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Home United score more

    2.36 goals a game over 64 matches for Home United, against 1.62 over 45 for Adelaide United.

  • Home United concede fewer

    Home United concede 1.02 a game, Adelaide United 1.84.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Home United matches, against 67% for Adelaide United. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Home United
Adelaide United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1637.5
ELO
1507.8
64
ELO · Matches
45
1637.5
Current Team ELO
1507.8
1507.8
Current Opponent ELO
1637.5
129.7
Current ELO Difference
-129.7
0.68
Expected score
0.32
64
History Matches
45
0.10
Residual Mean
0.00
57.53
Overperformance
50.27
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.30
2.30
Goals for per game
1.40
0.70
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
45
2.02
PPG
1.20
60.9%
Win rate
31.1%
18.8%
Draw rate
26.7%
20.3%
Loss rate
42.2%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
91.1%
59.4%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
45.3%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
24
2.13
PPG
0.96
66.7%
Win rate
20.8%
13.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
20.0%
Loss rate
45.8%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.8%
46.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
30
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.36
Goals for per game
1.62
82.8%
Scoring rate
86.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
77.8%
2.43
Goals for per game
1.50
83.3%
Scoring rate
91.7%
53.3%
BTTS rate
87.5%
64
History Matches
45
2.36
Goals Mean
1.62
1.89
Goals Std
1.18
82.8%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
59.4%
Scored 2+ rate
42.2%
43.8%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
2.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
1.84
60.9%
Conceding rate
88.9%
0.93
Goals against per game
2.00
63.3%
Conceding rate
91.7%
64
History Matches
45
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.84
1.12
Conceded Std
1.28
26.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.3%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.4%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
45
0.86
Result entropy
0.98
2.39
Goal Difference Std
1.60
14.49
Stability score
1.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
45
34
Lead Matches
12
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.64
6
Trailing Matches
18
16.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
1.20
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
1.16
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
71.71
Rest days
86.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
34
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
17
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.87
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
5
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.43
1.91
Portability PPG Range
0.86
44.85
Portability Score
53.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO129.7
PPG0.82
GF0.74
GA-0.83
PPG1.18
PPG0.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate28.0%
Failed-to-score rate3.9%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate28.3%
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches19
Goals Mean0.74
Goals Std0.71
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate17.2%
Scored 3+ rate21.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.93
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.29
History Matches19
Conceded Mean-0.83
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate28.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.27
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-1.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.33
History Matches19
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std0.78
Stability score12.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches22
Lead Win Rate38.2%
Lead Points Retention0.27
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count5
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range1.06
Portability Score-8.99
Rest days-14.31
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match1.13
Current Team ELO129.7
Current Opponent ELO-129.7
Current ELO Difference259.3
Expected score0.36
History Matches19
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance7.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Home United

W
Balestier Khalsa0–4Home United1 Nov · away
Pick: Home United 63% · hit
W
Adelaide United0–2Home United29 Oct · away
Pick: Home United 61% · hit
W
Home United6–0Tanjong Pagar25 Oct · home
Pick: Home United 75% · hit
W
Albirex Niigata S0–2Home United18 Oct · away
Pick: Home United 56% · hit
W
Wofoo Tai Po0–1Home United15 Oct · away
Pick: Home United 45% · hit

Adelaide United

L
Perth Glory4–0Adelaide United1 Nov · away
Pick: Adelaide United 46% · missed
L
Adelaide United0–2Home United29 Oct · home
Pick: Home United 61% · hit
L
Sydney2–1Adelaide United25 Oct · away
Pick: Sydney 60% · hit
W
BG Pathum United1–2Adelaide United15 Oct · away
Pick: BG Pathum United 67% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Home United and Adelaide United meet in AFC Champions League Two on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. The match is played at Jalan Besar Stadium, Kallang. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Home United win 70.0%, draw 14.6%, Adelaide United win 15.4%. The pick is Home United win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.5%. Both teams to score: 59.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.