ScoreProb
J2 League Japan Round 16 2026

Blaublitz Akita vs Oita Trinita

Blaublitz Akita Home · Elo 1,522
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Oita Trinita Away · Elo 1,458
Soyu Stadium, Akita Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Blaublitz Akita win
Blaublitz Akita winPick
44.4%
Draw
28.2%
Oita Trinita win
27.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.8%
No53.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%

How much we know

Blaublitz Akita history66 matches
Oita Trinita history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Blaublitz Akita are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Blaublitz Akita are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,522 against 1,458. On rating alone Blaublitz Akita would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Blaublitz Akita score more

    1.20 goals a game over 66 matches for Blaublitz Akita, against 0.99 over 68 for Oita Trinita.

  • Oita Trinita concede fewer

    Blaublitz Akita concede 1.29 a game, Oita Trinita 1.13.

  • Blaublitz Akita games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Blaublitz Akita matches, against 37% for Oita Trinita. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Blaublitz Akita
Oita Trinita
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.8
ELO
1458.3
66
ELO · Matches
68
1521.8
Current Team ELO
1458.3
1458.3
Current Opponent ELO
1521.8
63.50
Current ELO Difference
-63.50
0.59
Expected score
0.41
66
History Matches
68
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
51.27
Overperformance
47.94
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
68
1.42
PPG
1.15
39.4%
Win rate
27.9%
24.2%
Draw rate
30.9%
36.4%
Loss rate
41.2%
71.2%
Over 1.5 rate
60.3%
47.0%
Over 2.5 rate
36.8%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
19.1%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
33
1.27
PPG
0.97
33.3%
Win rate
21.2%
27.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
39.4%
Loss rate
45.5%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
39.4%
Over 2.5 rate
39.4%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
33
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
0.99
72.7%
Scoring rate
61.8%
54.5%
BTTS rate
36.8%
1.03
Goals for per game
0.91
60.6%
Scoring rate
57.6%
39.4%
BTTS rate
36.4%
1.22
Goals for per game
1.13
69.6%
Scoring rate
65.2%
39.1%
BTTS rate
34.8%
66
History Matches
68
1.20
Goals Mean
0.99
0.97
Goals Std
1.02
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
61.8%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
8.8%
1.03
Venue Goals Mean
0.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.13
71.2%
Conceding rate
60.3%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.33
60.6%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.00
60.9%
Conceding rate
52.2%
66
History Matches
68
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.25
Conceded Std
1.12
31.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.8%
15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.7%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
39.4%
Failed-to-score rate
42.4%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
47.8%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
39.4%
Failed-to-score rate
42.4%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
68
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.51
1.84
Stability score
1.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
66
17
Lead Matches
15
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.80
21
Trailing Matches
25
23.8%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
76.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
41
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.10
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
23
1.74
PPG
1.26
52.2%
Win rate
34.8%
17.4%
Draw rate
21.7%
30.4%
Loss rate
43.5%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
52.2%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
39.1%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
23
Current Competition Matches
23
1.74
Current Competition PPG
1.26
0.26
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.13
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.51
1.20
Portability PPG Range
1.33
50.47
Portability Score
49.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO63.50
PPG0.28
GF0.21
GA0.16
PPG0.48
PPG0.30
PPG-0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.21
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate11.0%
Scored 2+ rate11.4%
Scored 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.75
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate14.9%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate3.8%
Trailing Win Rate5.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.48
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.13
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score0.82
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO63.50
Current Opponent ELO-63.50
Current ELO Difference127.0
Expected score0.18
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Blaublitz Akita

L
Yokohama FC2–1Blaublitz Akita3 Nov · away
Pick: Yokohama FC 49% · hit
D
Blaublitz Akita1–1Fujieda MYFC31 Oct · home
Pick: Blaublitz Akita 39% · missed
W
Blaublitz Akita1–0Imabari25 Oct · home
Pick: Blaublitz Akita 50% · hit
L
Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–1Blaublitz Akita21 Oct · away
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 53% · hit
L
Consadole Sapporo1–0Blaublitz Akita17 Oct · away
Pick: Consadole Sapporo 41% · hit

Oita Trinita

W
Oita Trinita1–0Vanraure Hachinohe3 Nov · home
Pick: Oita Trinita 45% · hit
L
Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–0Oita Trinita31 Oct · away
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 55% · hit
D
Oita Trinita1–1Ventforet Kofu25 Oct · home
Pick: Oita Trinita 42% · missed
D
Jubilo Iwata0–0Oita Trinita21 Oct · away
Pick: Jubilo Iwata 42% · missed
W
Oita Trinita5–1Albirex Niigata17 Oct · home
Pick: Oita Trinita 42% · hit

About this match

Blaublitz Akita and Oita Trinita meet in J2 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Soyu Stadium, Akita. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Blaublitz Akita win 44.4%, draw 28.2%, Oita Trinita win 27.4%. The pick is Blaublitz Akita win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.3%. Both teams to score: 46.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.