ScoreProb
J2 League Japan Round 16 2026

Tokushima Vortis vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Tokushima Vortis Home · Elo 1,524
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tegevajaro Miyazaki Away · Elo 1,619
Pocarisweat Stadium, Naruto Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki win
Tokushima Vortis win
33.9%
Draw
25.8%
Tegevajaro Miyazaki winPick
40.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.1%
No49.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.7%
Under 2.553.3%

How much we know

Tokushima Vortis history67 matches
Tegevajaro Miyazaki history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tegevajaro Miyazaki are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tegevajaro Miyazaki are rated 95 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,619 against 1,524. On rating alone Tegevajaro Miyazaki would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Tegevajaro Miyazaki score more

    1.40 goals a game over 67 matches for Tokushima Vortis, against 1.63 over 65 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki.

  • Defences are close

    Tokushima Vortis concede 0.88 a game, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 0.94.

  • Tegevajaro Miyazaki games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Tokushima Vortis matches, against 49% for Tegevajaro Miyazaki. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tokushima Vortis
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1524.2
ELO
1619.2
67
ELO · Matches
65
1524.2
Current Team ELO
1619.2
1619.2
Current Opponent ELO
1524.2
-94.99
Current ELO Difference
94.99
0.37
Expected score
0.63
67
History Matches
65
0.02
Residual Mean
0.09
51.32
Overperformance
56.89
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.70
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
65
1.63
PPG
1.95
46.3%
Win rate
56.9%
23.9%
Draw rate
24.6%
29.9%
Loss rate
18.5%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.2%
37.3%
Over 2.5 rate
49.2%
20.9%
Over 3.5 rate
27.7%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
32
1.82
PPG
1.91
52.9%
Win rate
56.3%
23.5%
Draw rate
21.9%
23.5%
Loss rate
21.9%
61.8%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
35.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.9%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
34
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.63
74.6%
Scoring rate
81.5%
38.8%
BTTS rate
55.4%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.69
79.4%
Scoring rate
81.3%
41.2%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.65
82.6%
Scoring rate
82.6%
43.5%
BTTS rate
39.1%
67
History Matches
65
1.40
Goals Mean
1.63
1.32
Goals Std
1.27
74.6%
Scored 1+ rate
81.5%
35.8%
Scored 2+ rate
46.2%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
23.1%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.88
Goals against per game
0.94
56.7%
Conceding rate
64.6%
0.91
Goals against per game
0.97
55.9%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.17
Goals against per game
0.65
56.5%
Conceding rate
52.2%
67
History Matches
65
0.88
Conceded Mean
0.94
1.04
Conceded Std
0.86
22.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.6%
4.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.6%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
0.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
47.8%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
65
0.96
Result entropy
0.89
1.86
Goal Difference Std
1.36
3.56
Stability score
11.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
65
23
Lead Matches
22
91.3%
Lead Win Rate
95.5%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.97
11
Trailing Matches
9
27.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
76.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
40
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.02
23
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
23
1.61
PPG
2.26
47.8%
Win rate
69.6%
17.4%
Draw rate
17.4%
34.8%
Loss rate
13.0%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
56.5%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
43.5%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
2.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
23
Current Competition Matches
23
1.61
Current Competition PPG
2.26
0.65
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.04
Portability PPG Range
0.44
96.03
Portability Score
69.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-94.99
PPG-0.33
GF-0.23
GA-0.06
PPG-0.65
PPG-0.08
PPG0.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Failed-to-score rate6.9%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Failed-to-score rate1.8%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.23
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.02
History Matches2
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.51
Stability score-7.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.40
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.65
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.35
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.39
Portability Score26.39
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO-94.99
Current Opponent ELO94.99
Current ELO Difference-190.0
Expected score-0.27
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tokushima Vortis

L
Montedio Yamagata1–0Tokushima Vortis3 Nov · away
Pick: Tokushima Vortis 40% · missed
L
Tokushima Vortis0–1Yokohama FC31 Oct · home
Pick: Tokushima Vortis 44% · missed
W
Fujieda MYFC0–1Tokushima Vortis24 Oct · away
Pick: Tokushima Vortis 34% · hit
L
Tokushima Vortis0–1Vanraure Hachinohe21 Oct · home
Pick: Tokushima Vortis 53% · missed
D
Vegalta Sendai0–0Tokushima Vortis17 Oct · away
Pick: Vegalta Sendai 40% · missed

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

W
Tegevajaro Miyazaki3–0Tochigi City3 Nov · home
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 55% · hit
W
Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–0Oita Trinita31 Oct · home
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 55% · hit
W
Montedio Yamagata0–2Tegevajaro Miyazaki25 Oct · away
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 43% · hit
W
Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–1Blaublitz Akita21 Oct · home
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 53% · hit
D
Tegevajaro Miyazaki1–1Jubilo Iwata17 Oct · home
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 54% · missed

About this match

Tokushima Vortis and Tegevajaro Miyazaki meet in J2 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Pocarisweat Stadium, Naruto. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Tokushima Vortis win 33.9%, draw 25.8%, Tegevajaro Miyazaki win 40.3%. The pick is Tegevajaro Miyazaki win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.7%. Both teams to score: 50.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.