ScoreProb
First League Montenegro Round 15 2026

Bokelj vs Mornar

Bokelj Home · Elo 1,495
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mornar Away · Elo 1,599
Stadion pod Vrmcem, Kotor Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mornar win
Bokelj win
27.6%
Draw
31.5%
Mornar winPick
40.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.9%
No58.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.0%
Under 2.559.0%

How much we know

Bokelj history67 matches
Mornar history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.9%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.

Why Mornar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mornar are rated 104 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,599 against 1,495. On rating alone Mornar would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Mornar score more

    0.97 goals a game over 67 matches for Bokelj, against 1.31 over 70 for Mornar.

  • Mornar concede fewer

    Bokelj concede 1.37 a game, Mornar 1.01.

  • Mornar games more often go over 2.5 goals

    39% of Bokelj matches, against 47% for Mornar. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bokelj
Mornar@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1495.4
ELO
1599.1
67
ELO · Matches
70
1495.4
Current Team ELO
1599.1
1599.1
Current Opponent ELO
1495.4
-103.7
Current ELO Difference
103.7
0.36
Expected score
0.64
67
History Matches
70
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.07
49.40
Overperformance
55.23
0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
0.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.10
0.40
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
70
1.10
PPG
1.66
28.4%
Win rate
47.1%
25.4%
Draw rate
24.3%
46.3%
Loss rate
28.6%
61.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
38.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
15.7%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
36
1.03
PPG
1.61
25.8%
Win rate
47.2%
25.8%
Draw rate
19.4%
48.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.8%
Over 3.5 rate
13.9%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
31
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.97
Goals for per game
1.31
64.2%
Scoring rate
74.3%
38.8%
BTTS rate
45.7%
1.10
Goals for per game
1.28
67.7%
Scoring rate
72.2%
45.2%
BTTS rate
44.4%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
67
History Matches
70
0.97
Goals Mean
1.31
0.96
Goals Std
1.06
64.2%
Scored 1+ rate
74.3%
22.4%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
9.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.01
62.7%
Conceding rate
62.9%
1.55
Goals against per game
1.17
67.7%
Conceding rate
63.9%
0.25
Goals against per game
0.75
25.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
67
History Matches
70
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.01
1.44
Conceded Std
1.06
40.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.7%
1.55
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
70
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.59
3.34
Stability score
3.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
70
14
Lead Matches
23
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
78.3%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.81
22
Trailing Matches
13
22.7%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.83
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
43
Normal Rest History Matches
53
0.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
21
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.83
1.43
Portability PPG Range
2.67
48.10
Portability Score
37.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-103.7
PPG-0.55
GF-0.34
GA0.36
PPG-0.25
PPG-0.58
PPG0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate0.2%
Failed-to-score rate10.1%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.38
Clean-sheet rate0.2%
Conceded 2+ rate11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate12.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-0.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate7.5%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-1.24
Portability Score10.49
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.12
Current Team ELO-103.7
Current Opponent ELO103.7
Current ELO Difference-207.4
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bokelj

L
Bokelj0–1Buducnost Podgorica2 Nov · home
Pick: Bokelj 41% · missed
D
Arsenal Tivat0–0Bokelj28 Oct · away
Pick: Bokelj 38% · missed
L
Sutjeska4–0Bokelj19 Oct · away
Pick: Bokelj 43% · missed
D
Buducnost Podgorica0–0Bokelj30 Aug · away
Pick: Buducnost Podgorica 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mornar

L
Buducnost Podgorica3–2Mornar27 Oct · away
Pick: Mornar 37% · missed
W
Otrant-Olympic0–3Mornar13 Oct · away
Pick: Mornar 44% · hit
D
Petrovac1–1Mornar29 Aug · away
Pick: Petrovac 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bokelj and Mornar meet in First League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion pod Vrmcem, Kotor. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bokelj win 27.6%, draw 31.5%, Mornar win 40.9%. The pick is Mornar win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.0%. Both teams to score: 41.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.