ScoreProb
First League Montenegro Round 15 2026

Buducnost Podgorica vs Otrant-Olympic

Buducnost Podgorica Home · Elo 1,522
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Otrant-Olympic Away · Elo 1,545
Podgorica City Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Buducnost Podgorica win
Buducnost Podgorica winPick
40.8%
Draw
27.9%
Otrant-Olympic win
31.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.1%
Under 2.547.9%

How much we know

Buducnost Podgorica history71 matches
Otrant-Olympic history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 5 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Buducnost Podgorica are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,522 against 1,545. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Otrant-Olympic score more

    1.61 goals a game over 71 matches for Buducnost Podgorica, against 1.91 over 66 for Otrant-Olympic.

  • Defences are close

    Buducnost Podgorica concede 1.08 a game, Otrant-Olympic 1.20.

  • Otrant-Olympic games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Buducnost Podgorica matches, against 59% for Otrant-Olympic. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Buducnost Podgorica
Otrant-Olympic@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1522.1
ELO
1545.0
71
ELO · Matches
66
1522.1
Current Team ELO
1545.0
1545.0
Current Opponent ELO
1522.1
-22.90
Current ELO Difference
22.90
0.47
Expected score
0.53
71
History Matches
66
0.00
Residual Mean
0.03
50.13
Overperformance
52.26
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.70
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
66
1.59
PPG
1.64
45.1%
Win rate
48.5%
23.9%
Draw rate
18.2%
31.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
46.5%
Over 2.5 rate
59.1%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
34
1.77
PPG
1.35
51.6%
Win rate
38.2%
22.6%
Draw rate
20.6%
25.8%
Loss rate
41.2%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
32.3%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
31
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.61
Goals for per game
1.91
67.6%
Scoring rate
78.8%
43.7%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.56
67.7%
Scoring rate
79.4%
41.9%
BTTS rate
58.8%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
66
1.61
Goals Mean
1.91
1.56
Goals Std
1.73
67.6%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
45.1%
Scored 2+ rate
53.0%
25.4%
Scored 3+ rate
24.2%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.08
Goals against per game
1.20
64.8%
Conceding rate
71.2%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.35
64.5%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
71
History Matches
66
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.03
Conceded Std
1.03
29.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.9%
14.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.1%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
66
0.97
Result entropy
0.93
1.85
Goal Difference Std
2.12
3.11
Stability score
6.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
66
23
Lead Matches
28
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
82.1%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.85
15
Trailing Matches
16
33.3%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.79
Rest days
75.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
43
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.76
25
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
9
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.51
1.44
Portability PPG Range
1.56
48.49
Portability Score
49.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-22.90
PPG-0.04
GF-0.30
GA-0.11
PPG0.00
PPG0.42
PPG0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Failed-to-score rate11.2%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Failed-to-score rate11.7%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.30
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate8.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches5
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score-3.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate0.5%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.12
Portability Score-1.07
Rest days1.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.39
Current Team ELO-22.90
Current Opponent ELO22.90
Current ELO Difference-45.81
Expected score-0.07
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Buducnost Podgorica

W
Bokelj0–1Buducnost Podgorica2 Nov · away
Pick: Bokelj 41% · missed
W
Buducnost Podgorica3–2Mornar27 Oct · home
Pick: Mornar 37% · missed
D
Buducnost Podgorica0–0Bokelj30 Aug · home
Pick: Buducnost Podgorica 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Otrant-Olympic

W
Otrant-Olympic3–1Arsenal Tivat3 Nov · home
Pick: Otrant-Olympic 51% · hit
D
Otrant-Olympic1–1Sutjeska24 Oct · home
Pick: Otrant-Olympic 45% · missed
W
Petrovac2–3Otrant-Olympic19 Oct · away
Pick: Petrovac 46% · missed
L
Otrant-Olympic0–3Mornar13 Oct · home
Pick: Mornar 44% · hit
W
Arsenal Tivat1–2Otrant-Olympic30 Aug · away
Pick: Arsenal Tivat 38% · missed

About this match

Buducnost Podgorica and Otrant-Olympic meet in First League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Podgorica City Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Buducnost Podgorica win 40.8%, draw 27.9%, Otrant-Olympic win 31.3%. The pick is Buducnost Podgorica win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.1%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.