ScoreProb
First League Montenegro Round 15 2026

Dečić vs Mladost DG

Dečić Home · Elo 1,527
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mladost DG Away · Elo 1,474
Tusko, Tuzi Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dečić win
Dečić winPick
56.8%
Draw
22.0%
Mladost DG win
21.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.0%
No50.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%

How much we know

Dečić history71 matches
Mladost DG history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Dečić are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dečić are rated 53 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,527 against 1,474. On rating alone Dečić would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Mladost DG score more

    1.17 goals a game over 71 matches for Dečić, against 1.47 over 70 for Mladost DG.

  • Dečić concede fewer

    Dečić concede 1.10 a game, Mladost DG 1.43.

  • Mladost DG games more often go over 2.5 goals

    39% of Dečić matches, against 59% for Mladost DG. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dečić
Mladost DG@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1527.3
ELO
1474.1
71
ELO · Matches
70
1527.3
Current Team ELO
1474.1
1474.1
Current Opponent ELO
1527.3
53.24
Current ELO Difference
-53.24
0.58
Expected score
0.42
71
History Matches
70
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.02
51.76
Overperformance
48.70
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
0.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.00
0.90
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
70
1.46
PPG
1.41
39.4%
Win rate
41.4%
28.2%
Draw rate
17.1%
32.4%
Loss rate
41.4%
63.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.9%
39.4%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
18.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
34
1.59
PPG
1.29
43.2%
Win rate
38.2%
29.7%
Draw rate
14.7%
27.0%
Loss rate
47.1%
62.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
45.9%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.1%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
37
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.17
Goals for per game
1.47
70.4%
Scoring rate
78.6%
46.5%
BTTS rate
54.3%
1.38
Goals for per game
1.47
73.0%
Scoring rate
79.4%
48.6%
BTTS rate
55.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
70
1.17
Goals Mean
1.47
1.03
Goals Std
1.19
70.4%
Scored 1+ rate
78.6%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
15.7%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.47
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.10
Goals against per game
1.43
66.2%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.62
62.2%
Conceding rate
70.6%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.25
0.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
71
History Matches
70
1.10
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.04
Conceded Std
1.26
32.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.3%
7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.4%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
70
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.72
0.88
Stability score
6.02
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
69
21
Lead Matches
21
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.78
11
Trailing Matches
19
27.3%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.94
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
55
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
15
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.37
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.50
PPG
1.00
75.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
8
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.75
Portability PPG Range
1.00
42.78
Portability Score
52.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO53.24
PPG0.05
GF-0.30
GA-0.33
PPG1.50
PPG0.30
PPG1.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Failed-to-score rate8.1%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate8.4%
Failed-to-score rate6.4%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.30
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.34
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches1
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score-5.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate6.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.75
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.75
Portability Score-9.52
Rest days-0.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO53.24
Current Opponent ELO-53.24
Current ELO Difference106.5
Expected score0.15
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dečić

L
Jezero1–0Dečić3 Nov · away
Pick: Dečić 46% · missed
W
Dečić2–1Jezero30 Aug · home
Pick: Dečić 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mladost DG

L
Mladost DG0–1Sutjeska2 Nov · home
Pick: Mladost DG 45% · missed
L
Petrovac1–0Mladost DG28 Oct · away
Pick: Petrovac 50% · hit
W
Mladost DG4–0Iskra14 Oct · home
Pick: Mladost DG 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dečić and Mladost DG meet in First League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Tusko, Tuzi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dečić win 56.8%, draw 22.0%, Mladost DG win 21.2%. The pick is Dečić win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.6%. Both teams to score: 50.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.