ScoreProb
First League Montenegro Round 15 2026

Sutjeska vs Petrovac

Sutjeska Home · Elo 1,524
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Petrovac Away · Elo 1,506
Stadion Gradski Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Petrovac win
Sutjeska win
33.7%
Draw
25.6%
Petrovac winPick
40.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.6%
No52.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.0%
Under 2.553.0%

How much we know

Sutjeska history74 matches
Petrovac history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Petrovac are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,524 against 1,506. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sutjeska score more

    1.41 goals a game over 74 matches for Sutjeska, against 1.25 over 68 for Petrovac.

  • Petrovac concede fewer

    Sutjeska concede 1.20 a game, Petrovac 1.03.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Sutjeska matches, against 44% for Petrovac. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sutjeska
Petrovac@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1523.6
ELO
1505.6
74
ELO · Matches
68
1523.6
Current Team ELO
1505.6
1505.6
Current Opponent ELO
1523.6
18.02
Current ELO Difference
-18.02
0.53
Expected score
0.47
74
History Matches
68
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.56
Overperformance
50.29
-0.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.00
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.10
PPG
1.10
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.90
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
68
1.58
PPG
1.40
47.3%
Win rate
35.3%
16.2%
Draw rate
33.8%
36.5%
Loss rate
30.9%
74.3%
Over 1.5 rate
69.1%
47.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
20.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.6%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
34
1.77
PPG
1.15
53.8%
Win rate
26.5%
15.4%
Draw rate
35.3%
30.8%
Loss rate
38.2%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
20.6%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
39
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.41
Goals for per game
1.25
78.4%
Scoring rate
72.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.64
Goals for per game
1.18
84.6%
Scoring rate
76.5%
53.8%
BTTS rate
61.8%
0.25
Goals for per game
0.75
25.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
74
History Matches
68
1.41
Goals Mean
1.25
1.15
Goals Std
1.09
78.4%
Scored 1+ rate
72.1%
39.2%
Scored 2+ rate
35.3%
16.2%
Scored 3+ rate
13.2%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.03
67.6%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.21
69.2%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
74
History Matches
68
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.03
1.14
Conceded Std
0.89
35.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.5%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.8%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
75.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
68
0.93
Result entropy
1.00
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.45
7.43
Stability score
0.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
68
16
Lead Matches
15
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.69
17
Trailing Matches
16
11.8%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
18.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
51
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
20
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
1.25
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 1.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
1.25
-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
8
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.11
1.75
Portability PPG Range
0.34
43.98
Portability Score
81.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO18.02
PPG0.18
GF0.16
GA0.17
PPG-1.00
PPG0.62
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate6.3%
Scored 2+ rate3.9%
Scored 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.38
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Conceded 2+ rate11.6%
Conceded 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score7.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.34
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate27.5%
Lead Points Retention0.23
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.52
Portability PPG Range1.41
Portability Score-37.35
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.01
Current Team ELO18.02
Current Opponent ELO-18.02
Current ELO Difference36.05
Expected score0.05
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.42

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sutjeska

W
Mladost DG0–1Sutjeska2 Nov · away
Pick: Mladost DG 45% · missed
D
Otrant-Olympic1–1Sutjeska24 Oct · away
Pick: Otrant-Olympic 45% · missed
W
Sutjeska4–0Bokelj19 Oct · home
Pick: Bokelj 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Petrovac

W
Petrovac1–0Mladost DG28 Oct · home
Pick: Petrovac 50% · hit
L
Petrovac2–3Otrant-Olympic19 Oct · home
Pick: Petrovac 46% · missed
W
Petrovac2–0Kom15 Oct · home
Pick: Petrovac 57% · hit
D
Petrovac1–1Mornar29 Aug · home
Pick: Petrovac 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sutjeska and Petrovac meet in First League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Gradski. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Sutjeska win 33.7%, draw 25.6%, Petrovac win 40.8%. The pick is Petrovac win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.0%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.