ScoreProb
Regionalliga - West Germany West - 16 2026

Bonner SC vs FC Gutersloh

Bonner SC Home · Elo 1,491
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Gutersloh Away · Elo 1,604
Sportpark Nord, Bonn Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Gutersloh win
Bonner SC win
26.0%
Draw
22.8%
FC Gutersloh winPick
51.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%

How much we know

Bonner SC history62 matches
FC Gutersloh history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FC Gutersloh are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Gutersloh are rated 113 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,604 against 1,491. On rating alone FC Gutersloh would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • FC Gutersloh score more

    1.42 goals a game over 62 matches for Bonner SC, against 1.93 over 61 for FC Gutersloh.

  • Defences are close

    Bonner SC concede 1.42 a game, FC Gutersloh 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Bonner SC matches, against 62% for FC Gutersloh. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bonner SC
FC Gutersloh
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.9
ELO
1604.0
62
ELO · Matches
61
1490.9
Current Team ELO
1604.0
1604.0
Current Opponent ELO
1490.9
-113.1
Current ELO Difference
113.1
0.34
Expected score
0.66
62
History Matches
61
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.10
49.43
Overperformance
57.29
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
2.30
1.30
Goals for per game
2.30
1.90
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.68
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
61
1.42
PPG
1.87
38.7%
Win rate
54.1%
25.8%
Draw rate
24.6%
35.5%
Loss rate
21.3%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
62.3%
33.9%
Over 3.5 rate
37.7%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
26
1.32
PPG
1.92
35.5%
Win rate
53.8%
25.8%
Draw rate
30.8%
38.7%
Loss rate
15.4%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
31
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.42
Goals for per game
1.93
77.4%
Scoring rate
83.6%
59.7%
BTTS rate
57.4%
1.23
Goals for per game
1.85
77.4%
Scoring rate
80.8%
58.1%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.25
Goals for per game
2.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
62
History Matches
61
1.42
Goals Mean
1.93
1.28
Goals Std
1.60
77.4%
Scored 1+ rate
83.6%
35.5%
Scored 2+ rate
54.1%
17.7%
Scored 3+ rate
27.9%
1.23
Venue Goals Mean
1.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.33
79.0%
Conceding rate
67.2%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.00
80.6%
Conceding rate
53.8%
1.75
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
62
History Matches
61
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.25
Conceded Std
1.33
33.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.4%
16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.3%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
21.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
61
0.99
Result entropy
0.92
1.88
Goal Difference Std
2.26
1.28
Stability score
8.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
61
17
Lead Matches
22
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.92
16
Trailing Matches
16
43.8%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
26
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.50
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.75
5
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.71
Portability PPG Std
0.75
1.86
Portability PPG Range
2.00
41.45
Portability Score
39.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-113.1
PPG-0.45
GF-0.52
GA0.09
PPG-2.50
PPG-0.60
PPG-2.20
PPG-1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate6.2%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Failed-to-score rate3.3%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.52
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.67
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.48
History Matches1
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score-7.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.23
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.19
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score1.47
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.80
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO-113.1
Current Opponent ELO113.1
Current ELO Difference-226.1
Expected score-0.31
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.44

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bonner SC

W
Bonner SC3–1Schalke 04 II31 Oct · home
Pick: Bonner SC 50% · hit
L
Borussia Dortmund II2–0Bonner SC23 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund II 57% · hit
L
Bonner SC0–1Hilden17 Oct · home
Pick: Hilden 41% · hit
D
FC Bocholt2–2Bonner SC1 Sep · away
Pick: FC Bocholt 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Gutersloh

W
Borussia Dortmund II0–1FC Gutersloh31 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund II 38% · missed
W
FC Gutersloh3–1Wiedenbrück23 Oct · home
Pick: FC Gutersloh 62% · hit
W
SG Wattenscheid 091–2FC Gutersloh16 Oct · away
Pick: FC Gutersloh 42% · hit
W
FC Gutersloh6–0Hilden1 Sep · home
Pick: FC Gutersloh 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bonner SC and FC Gutersloh meet in Regionalliga - West on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Sportpark Nord, Bonn. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bonner SC win 26.0%, draw 22.8%, FC Gutersloh win 51.2%. The pick is FC Gutersloh win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.6%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.