ScoreProb
Regionalliga - West Germany West - 16 2026

Rot-weiss Oberhausen vs Borussia Dortmund II

Rot-weiss Oberhausen Home · Elo 1,576
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Borussia Dortmund II Away · Elo 1,590
Niederrheinstadion, Oberhausen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Borussia Dortmund II win
Rot-weiss Oberhausen win
33.1%
Draw
25.3%
Borussia Dortmund II winPick
41.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.0%
Under 2.538.0%

How much we know

Rot-weiss Oberhausen history62 matches
Borussia Dortmund II history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Borussia Dortmund II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,576 against 1,590. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.71 goals a game over 62 matches for Rot-weiss Oberhausen, against 1.68 over 68 for Borussia Dortmund II.

  • Defences are close

    Rot-weiss Oberhausen concede 1.50 a game, Borussia Dortmund II 1.43.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of Rot-weiss Oberhausen matches, against 59% for Borussia Dortmund II. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rot-weiss Oberhausen
Borussia Dortmund II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1576.1
ELO
1590.0
62
ELO · Matches
68
1576.1
Current Team ELO
1590.0
1590.0
Current Opponent ELO
1576.1
-13.93
Current ELO Difference
13.93
0.48
Expected score
0.52
62
History Matches
68
0.06
Residual Mean
0.05
54.37
Overperformance
54.08
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.50
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.70
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
68
1.56
PPG
1.54
43.5%
Win rate
42.6%
25.8%
Draw rate
26.5%
30.6%
Loss rate
30.9%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
66.1%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
38.7%
Over 3.5 rate
38.2%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
39
1.47
PPG
1.54
36.7%
Win rate
43.6%
36.7%
Draw rate
23.1%
26.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
30
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
1.68
87.1%
Scoring rate
79.4%
69.4%
BTTS rate
61.8%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.54
86.7%
Scoring rate
76.9%
70.0%
BTTS rate
56.4%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.67
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
68
1.71
Goals Mean
1.68
1.27
Goals Std
1.41
87.1%
Scored 1+ rate
79.4%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
45.6%
17.7%
Scored 3+ rate
23.5%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
1.54
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.43
75.8%
Conceding rate
79.4%
1.47
Goals against per game
1.44
76.7%
Conceding rate
74.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
68
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.28
Conceded Std
1.12
45.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.2%
17.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.7%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
68
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.82
2.24
Stability score
1.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
68
22
Lead Matches
20
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.82
14
Trailing Matches
19
14.3%
Non-loss rate
36.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.99
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
84.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
6
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
37
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.26
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
1.75
PPG
1.67
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
4
Current Competition Matches
3
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.67
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
5
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.58
1.07
Portability PPG Range
1.79
54.14
Portability Score
46.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-13.93
PPG0.02
GF0.03
GA0.07
PPG0.08
PPG-0.07
PPG0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate7.7%
Scored 2+ rate4.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Conceded 2+ rate4.0%
Conceded 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score0.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.58
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate6.8%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.08
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.42
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.73
Portability Score7.78
Rest days-7.77
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Current Team ELO-13.93
Current Opponent ELO13.93
Current ELO Difference-27.87
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rot-weiss Oberhausen

W
Wiedenbrück0–1Rot-weiss Oberhausen31 Oct · away
Pick: Rot-weiss Oberhausen 42% · hit
W
Rot-weiss Oberhausen3–0SG Wattenscheid 0925 Oct · home
Pick: Rot-weiss Oberhausen 47% · hit
L
Sportfreunde Siegen3–1Rot-weiss Oberhausen17 Oct · away
Pick: Sportfreunde Siegen 53% · hit
W
Rot-weiss Oberhausen4–0Paderborn II4 Oct · home
Pick: Rot-weiss Oberhausen 51% · hit
W
Rot-weiss Oberhausen4–1Westfalia Rhynern1 Sep · home
Pick: Westfalia Rhynern 42% · missed

Borussia Dortmund II

L
Borussia Dortmund II0–1FC Gutersloh31 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund II 38% · missed
W
Borussia Dortmund II2–0Bonner SC23 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund II 57% · hit
W
Wiedenbrück2–4Borussia Dortmund II17 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund II 52% · hit
W
Sportfreunde Siegen1–3Borussia Dortmund II4 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund II 40% · hit
W
Borussia Dortmund II3–1Schalke 04 II1 Sep · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund II 60% · hit

About this match

Rot-weiss Oberhausen and Borussia Dortmund II meet in Regionalliga - West on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Niederrheinstadion, Oberhausen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rot-weiss Oberhausen win 33.1%, draw 25.3%, Borussia Dortmund II win 41.6%. The pick is Borussia Dortmund II win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.0%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.