ScoreProb
Football League - Lowland League Scotland Regular Season 2026

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Tranent Juniors

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Home · Elo 1,594
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tranent Juniors Away · Elo 1,603
New Dundas Park, Bonnyrigg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic winPick
51.9%
Draw
24.1%
Tranent Juniors win
24.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.7%
No48.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.6%
Under 2.544.4%

How much we know

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic history65 matches
Tranent Juniors history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,594 against 1,603. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.80 goals a game over 65 matches for Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic, against 1.79 over 53 for Tranent Juniors.

  • Tranent Juniors concede fewer

    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic concede 1.40 a game, Tranent Juniors 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic matches, against 57% for Tranent Juniors. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Tranent Juniors
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1593.7
ELO
1603.0
65
ELO · Matches
53
1593.7
Current Team ELO
1603.0
1603.0
Current Opponent ELO
1593.7
-9.30
Current ELO Difference
9.30
0.49
Expected score
0.51
65
History Matches
53
0.08
Residual Mean
0.10
55.78
Overperformance
57.55
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
0.20
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.00
2.10
Goals for per game
1.20
0.90
Goals against per game
0.70
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
53
1.68
PPG
1.92
50.8%
Win rate
58.5%
15.4%
Draw rate
17.0%
33.8%
Loss rate
24.5%
83.1%
Over 1.5 rate
73.6%
63.1%
Over 2.5 rate
56.6%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.3%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
24
1.71
PPG
1.92
52.9%
Win rate
58.3%
11.8%
Draw rate
16.7%
35.3%
Loss rate
25.0%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
34
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.80
Goals for per game
1.79
84.6%
Scoring rate
79.2%
58.5%
BTTS rate
49.1%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.83
82.4%
Scoring rate
75.0%
61.8%
BTTS rate
54.2%
2.80
Goals for per game
1.40
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
65
History Matches
53
1.80
Goals Mean
1.79
1.35
Goals Std
1.42
84.6%
Scored 1+ rate
79.2%
49.2%
Scored 2+ rate
52.8%
29.2%
Scored 3+ rate
28.3%
1.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
72.3%
Conceding rate
64.2%
1.29
Goals against per game
0.96
76.5%
Conceding rate
70.8%
0.60
Goals against per game
0.20
40.0%
Conceding rate
20.0%
65
History Matches
53
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.29
Conceded Std
1.05
38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.6%
18.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.4%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
80.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
53
0.91
Result entropy
0.87
2.04
Goal Difference Std
1.86
9.09
Stability score
12.66
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
52
25
Lead Matches
27
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.91
18
Trailing Matches
9
27.8%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
48
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
14
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.60
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.98
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.40
Current Competition PPG
2.60
2.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.20
7
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.88
Portability PPG Std
0.36
2.40
Portability PPG Range
1.00
36.22
Portability Score
58.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-9.30
PPG-0.25
GF0.01
GA0.40
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.21
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate5.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches12
Conceded Mean0.40
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate15.8%
Conceded 3+ rate9.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.36
History Matches12
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score-3.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate5.6%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.52
Portability PPG Range1.40
Portability Score-21.91
Rest days-3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO-9.30
Current Opponent ELO9.30
Current ELO Difference-18.59
Expected score-0.03
History Matches12
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

L
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic2–4Dunfermline3 Nov · home
Pick: Dunfermline 41% · hit
D
Lochee United2–2Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic31 Oct · away
Pick: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 61% · missed
L
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic0–1Bo'ness United27 Oct · home
Pick: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 70% · missed
D
Cowdenbeath2–2Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic17 Oct · away
Pick: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 62% · missed
D
Spartans1–1Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic13 Oct · away
Pick: Spartans 51% · missed

Tranent Juniors

W
Tranent Juniors5–1Bo'ness United31 Oct · home
Pick: Tranent Juniors 65% · hit
L
Clydebank2–1Tranent Juniors24 Oct · away
Pick: Tranent Juniors 41% · missed
L
Tranent Juniors0–4Lochee United17 Oct · home
Pick: Tranent Juniors 70% · missed
W
Tranent Juniors4–0Civil Service Strollers29 Aug · home
Pick: Tranent Juniors 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic and Tranent Juniors meet in Football League - Lowland League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at New Dundas Park, Bonnyrigg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win 51.9%, draw 24.1%, Tranent Juniors win 24.0%. The pick is Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.6%. Both teams to score: 51.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.