ScoreProb
Football League - Lowland League Scotland Regular Season 2026

Cowdenbeath vs Berwick Rangers

Cowdenbeath Home · Elo 1,446
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Berwick Rangers Away · Elo 1,459
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cowdenbeath win
Cowdenbeath winPick
47.2%
Draw
23.3%
Berwick Rangers win
29.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.4%
No36.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.5%
Under 2.535.5%

How much we know

Cowdenbeath history50 matches
Berwick Rangers history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Cowdenbeath are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,446 against 1,459. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.62 goals a game over 50 matches for Cowdenbeath, against 1.63 over 48 for Berwick Rangers.

  • Cowdenbeath concede fewer

    Cowdenbeath concede 1.68 a game, Berwick Rangers 1.88.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of Cowdenbeath matches, against 63% for Berwick Rangers. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cowdenbeath
Berwick Rangers
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1446.2
ELO
1459.0
50
ELO · Matches
48
1446.2
Current Team ELO
1459.0
1459.0
Current Opponent ELO
1446.2
-12.81
Current ELO Difference
12.81
0.48
Expected score
0.52
50
History Matches
48
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.04
46.13
Overperformance
47.26
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
2.60
Goals against per game
2.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.20
1.70
Goals for per game
2.30
1.60
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.10
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.99
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
48
1.24
PPG
1.21
34.0%
Win rate
31.3%
22.0%
Draw rate
27.1%
44.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
86.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
54.2%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
23
1.40
PPG
1.09
40.0%
Win rate
26.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
30.4%
40.0%
Loss rate
43.5%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
68.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.2%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
56.5%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
25
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.62
Goals for per game
1.63
80.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
64.0%
BTTS rate
58.3%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.70
84.0%
Scoring rate
60.9%
64.0%
BTTS rate
56.5%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
40.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
50
History Matches
48
1.62
Goals Mean
1.63
1.32
Goals Std
1.52
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
44.0%
Scored 2+ rate
52.1%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
29.2%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.68
Goals against per game
1.88
80.0%
Conceding rate
79.2%
1.60
Goals against per game
2.04
76.0%
Conceding rate
82.6%
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
48
1.68
Conceded Mean
1.88
1.35
Conceded Std
1.41
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.4%
24.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.2%
1.60
Venue Conceded Mean
2.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
48
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.94
Goal Difference Std
1.98
3.41
Stability score
1.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
47
14
Lead Matches
10
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.67
17
Trailing Matches
18
35.3%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
35
0.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
17
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.80
Current Competition PPG
0.80
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.80
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.24
0.80
Portability PPG Range
0.60
60.18
Portability Score
67.12
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-12.81
PPG0.03
GF-0.01
GA-0.20
PPG0.00
PPG0.31
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate6.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate13.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.61
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score1.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate11.4%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate7.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.20
Portability Score-6.94
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Current Team ELO-12.81
Current Opponent ELO12.81
Current ELO Difference-25.62
Expected score-0.04
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cowdenbeath

D
Cowdenbeath2–2Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic17 Oct · home
Pick: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 62% · missed
L
Cowdenbeath2–3Celtic II13 Oct · home
Pick: Celtic II 51% · hit
L
Linlithgow Rose3–2Cowdenbeath29 Aug · away
Pick: Linlithgow Rose 61% · hit
L
Cowdenbeath1–3East Kilbride25 Aug · home
Pick: East Kilbride 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Berwick Rangers

L
Stenhousemuir4–1Berwick Rangers3 Nov · away
Pick: Stenhousemuir 71% · hit
L
Berwick Rangers2–5East Stirlingshire31 Oct · home
Pick: Berwick Rangers 48% · missed
L
Stirling University1–0Berwick Rangers28 Oct · away
Pick: Berwick Rangers 41% · missed
D
Gala Fairydean Rovers1–1Berwick Rangers24 Oct · away
Pick: Gala Fairydean Rovers 44% · missed
L
Berwick Rangers0–1Linlithgow Rose17 Oct · home
Pick: Linlithgow Rose 59% · hit

About this match

Cowdenbeath and Berwick Rangers meet in Football League - Lowland League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Cowdenbeath win 47.2%, draw 23.3%, Berwick Rangers win 29.6%. The pick is Cowdenbeath win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.5%. Both teams to score: 63.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.