ScoreProb
Football League - Lowland League Scotland Regular Season 2026

Celtic II vs Beith

Celtic II Home · Elo 1,518
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Beith Away · Elo 1,487
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Celtic II win
Celtic II winPick
80.0%
Draw
8.8%
Beith win
11.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.8%
No34.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.585.1%
Under 2.514.9%

How much we know

Celtic II history56 matches
Beith history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (80.0%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Celtic II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Celtic II are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,518 against 1,487. On rating alone Celtic II would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Celtic II score more

    2.30 goals a game over 56 matches for Celtic II, against 1.83 over 6 for Beith.

  • Celtic II concede fewer

    Celtic II concede 2.05 a game, Beith 3.17.

  • Beith games more often go over 2.5 goals

    79% of Celtic II matches, against 100% for Beith. The model puts this match at 85% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Celtic II
Beith
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.1
ELO
1487.4
56
ELO · Matches
6
1518.1
Current Team ELO
1487.4
1487.4
Current Opponent ELO
1518.1
30.72
Current ELO Difference
-30.72
0.54
Expected score
0.46
56
History Matches
6
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.07
49.69
Overperformance
48.28
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.80
3.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
3.40
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
6
1.70
PPG
1.17
3.10
Goals for per game
1.83
1.90
Goals against per game
3.17
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
3.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.83
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.69
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.17
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.95
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.92
2.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
6
1.46
PPG
1.17
41.1%
Win rate
33.3%
23.2%
Draw rate
16.7%
35.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
78.6%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
67.9%
Over 3.5 rate
83.3%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
2
2.05
PPG
1.50
59.1%
Win rate
50.0%
27.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
13.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
95.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
81.8%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
72.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.50
22
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.30
Goals for per game
1.83
87.5%
Scoring rate
100.0%
78.6%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2.95
Goals for per game
1.50
95.5%
Scoring rate
100.0%
86.4%
BTTS rate
100.0%
3.83
Goals for per game
1.83
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
6
2.30
Goals Mean
1.83
1.65
Goals Std
0.69
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
60.7%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
44.6%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
2.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.05
Goals against per game
3.17
89.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.59
Goals against per game
4.00
90.9%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
3.17
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
6
2.05
Conceded Mean
3.17
1.37
Conceded Std
1.95
57.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
83.3%
37.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
1.59
Venue Conceded Mean
4.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
4.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
4.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
6
0.98
Result entropy
0.92
2.06
Goal Difference Std
2.43
2.40
Stability score
7.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
6
21
Lead Matches
0
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.84
Lead Points Retention
—
15
Trailing Matches
1
26.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
1.05
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
1.25
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
33
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.50
18
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
2.17
PPG
1.17
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
16.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
83.3%
Over 3.5 rate
83.3%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
6
Current Competition Matches
6
2.17
Current Competition PPG
1.17
2.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
6
Competition Season Count
1
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.53
Portability PPG Std
—
1.31
Portability PPG Range
—
48.70
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO30.72
PPG0.30
GF0.47
GA-1.11
PPG1.00
PPG0.55
PPG1.80
PPG0.53
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches50
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Failed-to-score rate12.5%
History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches50
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std0.96
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate28.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std1.01
History Matches50
Conceded Mean-1.11
Conceded Std-0.58
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.26
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-2.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.01
History Matches50
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score-5.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.20
Eligible Matches50
Lead Matches21
Trailing Matches14
Non-loss rate26.7%
Trailing Win Rate13.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches50
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.62
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.50
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days-3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches31
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.08
Long Rest History Matches17
Long Rest Points Per Match1.22
Current Team ELO30.72
Current Opponent ELO-30.72
Current ELO Difference61.43
Expected score0.09
History Matches50
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance1.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Celtic II

L
Ross County2–0Celtic II3 Nov · away
Pick: Ross County 69% · hit
W
Clydebank2–3Celtic II27 Oct · away
Pick: Celtic II 47% · hit
L
Celtic II0–1Caledonian Braves16 Oct · home
Pick: Celtic II 56% · missed
W
Cowdenbeath2–3Celtic II13 Oct · away
Pick: Celtic II 51% · hit
W
Stranraer3–4Celtic II1 Sep · away
Pick: Stranraer 51% · missed

Beith

L
Clydebank2–0Beith17 Oct · away
Pick: Clydebank 82% · hit
L
Pollok2–1Beith29 Aug · away
Pick: Pollok 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Celtic II and Beith meet in Football League - Lowland League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Celtic II win 80.0%, draw 8.8%, Beith win 11.2%. The pick is Celtic II win. Over 2.5 goals: 85.1%. Both teams to score: 65.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.