ScoreProb
Football League - Lowland League Scotland Regular Season 2026

Brechin vs Broxburn Athletic

Brechin Home · Elo 1,574
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Broxburn Athletic Away · Elo 1,528
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Brechin win
Brechin winPick
48.3%
Draw
20.8%
Broxburn Athletic win
30.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.7%
No40.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.6%
Under 2.534.4%

How much we know

Brechin history63 matches
Broxburn Athletic history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Brechin are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Brechin are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,574 against 1,528. On rating alone Brechin would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.86 goals a game over 63 matches for Brechin, against 1.78 over 50 for Broxburn Athletic.

  • Brechin concede fewer

    Brechin concede 1.25 a game, Broxburn Athletic 1.68.

  • Broxburn Athletic games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Brechin matches, against 74% for Broxburn Athletic. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Brechin
Broxburn Athletic
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1574.5
ELO
1528.2
63
ELO · Matches
50
1574.5
Current Team ELO
1528.2
1528.2
Current Opponent ELO
1574.5
46.33
Current ELO Difference
-46.33
0.57
Expected score
0.43
63
History Matches
50
0.06
Residual Mean
0.02
54.42
Overperformance
51.48
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.50
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
2.50
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
50
1.87
PPG
1.52
57.1%
Win rate
44.0%
15.9%
Draw rate
20.0%
27.0%
Loss rate
36.0%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
58.7%
Over 2.5 rate
74.0%
36.5%
Over 3.5 rate
48.0%
2.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
27
2.03
PPG
1.48
59.4%
Win rate
44.4%
25.0%
Draw rate
14.8%
15.6%
Loss rate
40.7%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
70.4%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
32
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.86
Goals for per game
1.78
77.8%
Scoring rate
80.0%
46.0%
BTTS rate
58.0%
2.16
Goals for per game
1.59
81.3%
Scoring rate
74.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
51.9%
2.75
Goals for per game
1.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
63
History Matches
50
1.86
Goals Mean
1.78
1.52
Goals Std
1.38
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
50.8%
Scored 2+ rate
52.0%
34.9%
Scored 3+ rate
30.0%
2.16
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.68
63.5%
Conceding rate
74.0%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.56
62.5%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.75
Goals against per game
0.40
75.0%
Conceding rate
20.0%
63
History Matches
50
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.68
1.50
Conceded Std
1.52
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.0%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
80.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
50
0.88
Result entropy
0.96
2.41
Goal Difference Std
2.33
12.13
Stability score
4.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
49
20
Lead Matches
14
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.90
17
Trailing Matches
15
5.9%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.31
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
9
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
5
2.50
PPG
2.60
75.0%
Win rate
80.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.02
4
Current Competition Matches
5
2.50
Current Competition PPG
2.60
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.40
7
Competition Season Count
6
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.99
Portability PPG Std
0.56
2.50
Portability PPG Range
1.20
33.63
Portability Score
47.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO46.33
PPG0.35
GF0.08
GA-0.43
PPG-0.10
PPG0.55
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate10.5%
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate11.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate4.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.18
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.43
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate10.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score7.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.21
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate14.3%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.34
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.40
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std0.43
Portability PPG Range1.30
Portability Score-13.67
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match1.06
Current Team ELO46.33
Current Opponent ELO-46.33
Current ELO Difference92.66
Expected score0.13
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Brechin

W
Gala Fairydean Rovers2–3Brechin31 Oct · away
Pick: Brechin 62% · hit
W
Brechin3–1East Stirlingshire27 Oct · home
Pick: Brechin 72% · hit
L
Bo'ness United3–1Brechin17 Oct · away
Pick: Brechin 46% · missed
W
Brechin3–1Musselburgh Athletic29 Aug · home
Pick: Brechin 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Broxburn Athletic

D
Broxburn Athletic1–1Civil Service Strollers31 Oct · home
Pick: Broxburn Athletic 54% · missed
W
Gala Fairydean Rovers0–4Broxburn Athletic28 Oct · away
Pick: Broxburn Athletic 46% · hit
D
Broxburn Athletic0–0Musselburgh Athletic17 Oct · home
Pick: Broxburn Athletic 66% · missed
W
Broxburn Athletic2–0Berwick Rangers29 Aug · home
Pick: Broxburn Athletic 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Brechin and Broxburn Athletic meet in Football League - Lowland League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Brechin win 48.3%, draw 20.8%, Broxburn Athletic win 30.9%. The pick is Brechin win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.6%. Both teams to score: 59.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.