ScoreProb
First League Bulgaria Round 13 2026

Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Botev Vratsa Home · Elo 1,529
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Away · Elo 1,552
Hristo Botev Stadium, Vraca Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Botev Vratsa win
Botev Vratsa winPick
36.2%
Draw
30.3%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win
33.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.6%
No54.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.2%
Under 2.555.8%

How much we know

Botev Vratsa history77 matches
Lokomotiv Plovdiv history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Botev Vratsa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,529 against 1,552. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.08 goals a game over 77 matches for Botev Vratsa, against 1.07 over 74 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

  • Lokomotiv Plovdiv concede fewer

    Botev Vratsa concede 1.12 a game, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.96.

  • Botev Vratsa games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of Botev Vratsa matches, against 32% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Plovdiv@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.0
ELO
1552.3
77
ELO · Matches
74
1529.0
Current Team ELO
1552.3
1552.3
Current Opponent ELO
1529.0
-23.31
Current ELO Difference
23.31
0.47
Expected score
0.53
77
History Matches
74
0.03
Residual Mean
0.04
52.22
Overperformance
52.98
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.60
0.60
Goals for per game
0.60
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.00
Goals for per game
0.90
1.70
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.34
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
74
1.35
PPG
1.49
33.8%
Win rate
39.2%
33.8%
Draw rate
31.1%
32.5%
Loss rate
29.7%
61.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.9%
41.6%
Over 2.5 rate
32.4%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
13.5%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
36
1.67
PPG
1.36
42.9%
Win rate
33.3%
38.1%
Draw rate
36.1%
19.0%
Loss rate
30.6%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
40.5%
Over 2.5 rate
36.1%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
42
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.08
Goals for per game
1.07
61.0%
Scoring rate
67.6%
42.9%
BTTS rate
39.2%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.06
69.0%
Scoring rate
61.1%
45.2%
BTTS rate
41.7%
0.67
Goals for per game
0.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
77
History Matches
74
1.08
Goals Mean
1.07
1.13
Goals Std
1.00
61.0%
Scored 1+ rate
67.6%
31.2%
Scored 2+ rate
28.4%
11.7%
Scored 3+ rate
6.8%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.12
Goals against per game
0.96
66.2%
Conceding rate
62.2%
0.86
Goals against per game
1.06
57.1%
Conceding rate
66.7%
2.17
Goals against per game
1.33
83.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
77
History Matches
74
1.12
Conceded Mean
0.96
1.09
Conceded Std
1.03
29.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.0%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.4%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
39.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
39.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
74
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.65
0.02
Stability score
0.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
74
13
Lead Matches
24
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
70.8%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.79
16
Trailing Matches
19
25.0%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.81
Rest days
74.72
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
53
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
21
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
0.67
PPG
0.50
16.7%
Win rate
16.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
83.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.90
6
Current Competition Matches
6
0.67
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.83
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.17
Portability PPG Range
1.70
53.26
Portability Score
45.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-23.31
PPG-0.14
GF0.01
GA0.16
PPG0.17
PPG0.31
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate6.5%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate2.8%
Scored 3+ rate4.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.31
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate6.9%
Conceded 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.72
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-0.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.50
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate6.1%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate3.9%
Trailing Win Rate1.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.53
Portability Score7.41
Rest days0.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Current Team ELO-23.31
Current Opponent ELO23.31
Current ELO Difference-46.63
Expected score-0.07
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Botev Vratsa

L
Cherno More Varna1–0Botev Vratsa2 Nov · away
Pick: Cherno More Varna 48% · hit
D
Lokomotiv Sofia1–1Botev Vratsa24 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotiv Sofia 44% · missed
W
Fratria1–2Botev Vratsa18 Oct · away
Pick: Botev Vratsa 40% · hit
L
Arda Kardzhali2–0Botev Vratsa31 Aug · away
Pick: Arda Kardzhali 64% · hit
W
Botev Vratsa1–0Botev Plovdiv24 Aug · home
Pick: Botev Plovdiv 46% · missed

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

D
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–0Slavia Sofia26 Oct · home
Pick: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 42% · missed
W
Cherno More Varna0–1Lokomotiv Plovdiv21 Oct · away
Pick: Cherno More Varna 44% · missed
W
Yantra 20190–2Lokomotiv Plovdiv16 Oct · away
Pick: Yantra 2019 37% · missed
L
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–1Arda Kardzhali24 Aug · home
Pick: Arda Kardzhali 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Botev Vratsa and Lokomotiv Plovdiv meet in First League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. The match is played at Hristo Botev Stadium, Vraca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Botev Vratsa win 36.2%, draw 30.3%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv win 33.5%. The pick is Botev Vratsa win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.2%. Both teams to score: 45.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.