ScoreProb
First League Bulgaria Round 13 2026

Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna

Slavia Sofia Home · Elo 1,514
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cherno More Varna Away · Elo 1,525
Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, Sofia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Slavia Sofia win
Slavia Sofia winPick
50.0%
Draw
21.1%
Cherno More Varna win
28.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.5%
No51.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%

How much we know

Slavia Sofia history70 matches
Cherno More Varna history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Slavia Sofia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,514 against 1,525. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Slavia Sofia score more

    1.43 goals a game over 70 matches for Slavia Sofia, against 1.06 over 79 for Cherno More Varna.

  • Cherno More Varna concede fewer

    Slavia Sofia concede 1.26 a game, Cherno More Varna 1.06.

  • Slavia Sofia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Slavia Sofia matches, against 38% for Cherno More Varna. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Slavia Sofia
Cherno More Varna@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1514.3
ELO
1525.2
70
ELO · Matches
79
1514.3
Current Team ELO
1525.2
1525.2
Current Opponent ELO
1514.3
-10.82
Current ELO Difference
10.82
0.48
Expected score
0.52
70
History Matches
79
0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
51.61
Overperformance
52.10
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
2.05
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
79
1.39
PPG
1.41
35.7%
Win rate
35.4%
31.4%
Draw rate
34.2%
32.9%
Loss rate
30.4%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
64.6%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
38.0%
27.1%
Over 3.5 rate
19.0%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
35
1.56
PPG
1.40
41.0%
Win rate
37.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
25.6%
Loss rate
34.3%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
62.9%
48.7%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
17.1%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
39
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
1.06
75.7%
Scoring rate
67.1%
57.1%
BTTS rate
43.0%
1.62
Goals for per game
0.97
71.8%
Scoring rate
65.7%
53.8%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.17
60.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
40.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
70
History Matches
79
1.43
Goals Mean
1.06
1.29
Goals Std
1.01
75.7%
Scored 1+ rate
67.1%
38.6%
Scored 2+ rate
26.6%
18.6%
Scored 3+ rate
10.1%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
1.06
74.3%
Conceding rate
60.8%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.17
71.8%
Conceding rate
62.9%
0.60
Goals against per game
2.17
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
70
History Matches
79
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.06
0.95
Conceded Std
1.20
41.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.1%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.9%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
39.2%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.9%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
39.2%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.9%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
39.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
79
1.00
Result entropy
1.00
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.70
0.13
Stability score
0.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
79
24
Lead Matches
24
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.74
14
Trailing Matches
24
28.6%
Non-loss rate
29.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
77.82
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
7
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.71
45
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
6
1.20
PPG
0.67
20.0%
Win rate
16.7%
60.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
20.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
5
Current Competition Matches
6
1.20
Current Competition PPG
0.67
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.68
Portability PPG Range
1.24
65.17
Portability Score
54.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-10.82
PPG-0.02
GF0.37
GA0.19
PPG0.53
PPG0.16
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.37
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate8.6%
Scored 2+ rate12.0%
Scored 3+ rate8.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std1.18
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.45
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-0.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.36
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.53
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.40
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.57
Portability Score10.31
Rest days-0.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.21
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.41
Current Team ELO-10.82
Current Opponent ELO10.82
Current ELO Difference-21.65
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Slavia Sofia

D
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–0Slavia Sofia26 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 42% · missed
W
Akademik Svishtov0–3Slavia Sofia17 Oct · away
Pick: Slavia Sofia 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cherno More Varna

W
Cherno More Varna1–0Botev Vratsa2 Nov · home
Pick: Cherno More Varna 48% · hit
W
Cherno More Varna2–0Septemvri Sofia27 Oct · home
Pick: Cherno More Varna 49% · hit
L
Cherno More Varna0–1Lokomotiv Plovdiv21 Oct · home
Pick: Cherno More Varna 44% · missed
W
Marek0–3Cherno More Varna17 Oct · away
Pick: Cherno More Varna 42% · hit
L
Ludogorets5–0Cherno More Varna4 Oct · away
Pick: Ludogorets 55% · hit

About this match

Slavia Sofia and Cherno More Varna meet in First League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, Sofia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Slavia Sofia win 50.0%, draw 21.1%, Cherno More Varna win 28.9%. The pick is Slavia Sofia win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 48.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.