ScoreProb
Ligue 2 France Round 12 2026

Boulogne vs Annecy

Boulogne Home · Elo 1,464
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Annecy Away · Elo 1,538
Stade de la Libération, Boulogne-Sur-Mer Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Boulogne win
Boulogne winPick
39.2%
Draw
27.6%
Annecy win
33.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.6%
No54.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.7%
Under 2.555.3%

How much we know

Boulogne history65 matches
Annecy history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Boulogne are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Annecy are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,538 against 1,464. On rating alone Annecy would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Annecy score more

    1.08 goals a game over 65 matches for Boulogne, against 1.29 over 55 for Annecy.

  • Defences are close

    Boulogne concede 1.23 a game, Annecy 1.24.

  • Annecy games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Boulogne matches, against 49% for Annecy. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Boulogne
Annecy
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1464.5
ELO
1538.4
65
ELO · Matches
55
1464.5
Current Team ELO
1538.4
1538.4
Current Opponent ELO
1464.5
-73.91
Current ELO Difference
73.91
0.40
Expected score
0.60
65
History Matches
55
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
47.81
Overperformance
52.25
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.90
0.90
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.64
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.84
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
55
1.25
PPG
1.44
30.8%
Win rate
41.8%
32.3%
Draw rate
18.2%
36.9%
Loss rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.9%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
49.1%
21.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.6%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
29
1.06
PPG
1.31
25.0%
Win rate
41.4%
31.3%
Draw rate
6.9%
43.8%
Loss rate
51.7%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
32
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.08
Goals for per game
1.29
69.2%
Scoring rate
76.4%
50.8%
BTTS rate
49.1%
1.16
Goals for per game
1.14
71.9%
Scoring rate
69.0%
59.4%
BTTS rate
41.4%
0.33
Goals for per game
1.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
65
History Matches
55
1.08
Goals Mean
1.29
0.97
Goals Std
1.15
69.2%
Scored 1+ rate
76.4%
27.7%
Scored 2+ rate
32.7%
9.2%
Scored 3+ rate
10.9%
1.16
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.24
70.8%
Conceding rate
67.3%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.48
75.0%
Conceding rate
72.4%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
65
History Matches
55
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.26
Conceded Std
1.17
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
1.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
55
1.00
Result entropy
0.95
1.41
Goal Difference Std
1.79
0.28
Stability score
5.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
55
12
Lead Matches
23
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
69.6%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.75
19
Trailing Matches
15
26.3%
Non-loss rate
6.7%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
74.01
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
41
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
66.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.19
Portability PPG Range
0.79
56.49
Portability Score
60.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-73.91
PPG-0.19
GF-0.21
GA-0.01
PPG-1.33
PPG-0.25
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.98
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches10
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.39
Stability score-4.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.58
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate13.8%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate19.6%
Trailing Win Rate5.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.40
Portability Score-4.28
Rest days3.03
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Current Team ELO-73.91
Current Opponent ELO73.91
Current ELO Difference-147.8
Expected score-0.21
History Matches10
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Boulogne

L
Laval1–0Boulogne30 Oct · away
Pick: Laval 44% · hit
D
Boulogne1–1Reims26 Oct · home
Pick: Reims 45% · missed
W
Grenoble0–2Boulogne16 Oct · away
Pick: Boulogne 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Annecy

L
Annecy0–3Montpellier31 Oct · home
Pick: Annecy 37% · missed
W
Sochaux1–3Annecy23 Oct · away
Pick: Sochaux 42% · missed
L
Annecy1–2Nancy16 Oct · home
Pick: Annecy 45% · missed
D
Annecy1–1Metz29 Aug · home
Pick: Annecy 50% · missed
L
Reims3–1Annecy24 Aug · away
Pick: Reims 46% · hit

About this match

Boulogne and Annecy meet in Ligue 2 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade de la Libération, Boulogne-Sur-Mer. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Boulogne win 39.2%, draw 27.6%, Annecy win 33.1%. The pick is Boulogne win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.7%. Both teams to score: 45.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.