ScoreProb
Ligue 2 France Round 12 2026

Nancy vs Sochaux

Nancy Home · Elo 1,514
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sochaux Away · Elo 1,538
Stade Marcel-Picot, Nancy Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nancy win
Nancy winPick
49.4%
Draw
24.0%
Sochaux win
26.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.5%
No49.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.1%
Under 2.548.9%

How much we know

Nancy history65 matches
Sochaux history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Nancy are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,514 against 1,538. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.49 goals a game over 65 matches for Nancy, against 1.39 over 62 for Sochaux.

  • Sochaux concede fewer

    Nancy concede 1.28 a game, Sochaux 1.10.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Nancy matches, against 45% for Sochaux. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nancy
Sochaux
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1513.6
ELO
1537.8
65
ELO · Matches
62
1513.6
Current Team ELO
1537.8
1537.8
Current Opponent ELO
1513.6
-24.21
Current ELO Difference
24.21
0.47
Expected score
0.53
65
History Matches
62
0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
51.48
Overperformance
51.81
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
0.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
0.90
0.90
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
2.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.88
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
62
1.48
PPG
1.48
40.0%
Win rate
40.3%
27.7%
Draw rate
27.4%
32.3%
Loss rate
32.3%
67.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
49.2%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
35.4%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
33
1.58
PPG
1.42
47.2%
Win rate
39.4%
16.7%
Draw rate
24.2%
36.1%
Loss rate
36.4%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.5%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
36
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.49
Goals for per game
1.39
69.2%
Scoring rate
72.6%
49.2%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.52
75.0%
Scoring rate
69.7%
44.4%
BTTS rate
57.6%
0.33
Goals for per game
0.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
33.3%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
65
History Matches
62
1.49
Goals Mean
1.39
1.59
Goals Std
1.30
69.2%
Scored 1+ rate
72.6%
38.5%
Scored 2+ rate
38.7%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.1%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.10
69.2%
Conceding rate
72.6%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.18
66.7%
Conceding rate
78.8%
0.33
Goals against per game
1.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
33.3%
65
History Matches
62
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.18
Conceded Std
0.98
36.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.2%
15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.7%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
62
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
2.00
Goal Difference Std
1.72
1.05
Stability score
1.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
61
18
Lead Matches
22
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.82
17
Trailing Matches
17
23.5%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
43
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
18
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.72
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
6
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.30
1.13
Portability PPG Range
0.91
54.76
Portability Score
62.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-24.21
PPG-0.01
GF0.11
GA0.18
PPG0.00
PPG0.16
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Failed-to-score rate3.3%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std1.75
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Conceded 2+ rate12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.31
History Matches3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score-0.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.26
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate5.1%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.22
Portability Score-7.46
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.67
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO-24.21
Current Opponent ELO24.21
Current ELO Difference-48.43
Expected score-0.07
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nancy

W
RED Star FC 931–4Nancy2 Nov · away
Pick: RED Star FC 93 44% · missed
W
Nancy1–0Laval23 Oct · home
Pick: Nancy 46% · hit
W
Annecy1–2Nancy16 Oct · away
Pick: Annecy 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sochaux

L
Reims2–0Sochaux2 Nov · away
Pick: Reims 53% · hit
L
Sochaux1–3Annecy23 Oct · home
Pick: Sochaux 42% · missed
L
Metz3–2Sochaux17 Oct · away
Pick: Metz 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nancy and Sochaux meet in Ligue 2 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade Marcel-Picot, Nancy. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Nancy win 49.4%, draw 24.0%, Sochaux win 26.5%. The pick is Nancy win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.1%. Both teams to score: 50.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.