ScoreProb
Ligue 2 France Round 12 2026

Dunkerque vs Guingamp

Dunkerque Home · Elo 1,511
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Guingamp Away · Elo 1,439
Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkirk Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dunkerque win
Dunkerque winPick
47.3%
Draw
24.7%
Guingamp win
28.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.0%
No45.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%

How much we know

Dunkerque history65 matches
Guingamp history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dunkerque are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dunkerque are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,511 against 1,439. On rating alone Dunkerque would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Dunkerque score more

    1.57 goals a game over 65 matches for Dunkerque, against 1.34 over 65 for Guingamp.

  • Defences are close

    Dunkerque concede 1.32 a game, Guingamp 1.43.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Dunkerque matches, against 58% for Guingamp. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dunkerque
Guingamp
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.7
ELO
1439.2
65
ELO · Matches
65
1510.7
Current Team ELO
1439.2
1439.2
Current Opponent ELO
1510.7
71.47
Current ELO Difference
-71.47
0.60
Expected score
0.40
65
History Matches
65
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.05
50.28
Overperformance
46.06
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.40
2.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
65
1.40
PPG
1.25
38.5%
Win rate
33.8%
24.6%
Draw rate
23.1%
36.9%
Loss rate
43.1%
72.3%
Over 1.5 rate
72.3%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.5%
33.8%
Over 3.5 rate
35.4%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
34
1.61
PPG
1.18
45.2%
Win rate
32.4%
25.8%
Draw rate
20.6%
29.0%
Loss rate
47.1%
67.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
41.9%
Over 2.5 rate
67.6%
32.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.1%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
31
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.34
73.8%
Scoring rate
72.3%
55.4%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.50
74.2%
Scoring rate
79.4%
48.4%
BTTS rate
64.7%
2.33
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
65
History Matches
65
1.57
Goals Mean
1.34
1.42
Goals Std
1.09
73.8%
Scored 1+ rate
72.3%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
21.5%
Scored 3+ rate
16.9%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
1.43
75.4%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.56
67.7%
Conceding rate
79.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
65
History Matches
65
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.22
Conceded Std
1.15
33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.5%
12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
27.7%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
27.7%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
65
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.83
Goal Difference Std
1.61
1.65
Stability score
2.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
65
20
Lead Matches
17
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
70.6%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.78
17
Trailing Matches
22
23.5%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
42
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
20
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.60
1.24
Portability PPG Range
1.75
53.59
Portability Score
45.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO71.47
PPG0.15
GF0.23
GA-0.11
PPG0.33
PPG0.44
PPG0.80
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Failed-to-score rate5.2%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate1.5%
Scored 2+ rate3.1%
Scored 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.85
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.01
History Matches0
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score-1.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.77
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate4.4%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate1.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.51
Portability Score8.30
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO71.47
Current Opponent ELO-71.47
Current ELO Difference142.9
Expected score0.20
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.43

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dunkerque

L
Rodez1–0Dunkerque30 Oct · away
Pick: Rodez 49% · hit
D
Dunkerque1–1Metz23 Oct · home
Pick: Dunkerque 46% · missed
W
Nantes2–3Dunkerque17 Oct · away
Pick: Dunkerque 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Guingamp

W
Guingamp3–0Saint Etienne31 Oct · home
Pick: Saint Etienne 47% · missed
W
Clermont Foot0–2Guingamp23 Oct · away
Pick: Guingamp 38% · hit
L
Guingamp1–2PAU16 Oct · home
Pick: Guingamp 52% · missed
D
Guingamp3–3Nantes29 Aug · home
Pick: Guingamp 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dunkerque and Guingamp meet in Ligue 2 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkirk. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Dunkerque win 47.3%, draw 24.7%, Guingamp win 28.0%. The pick is Dunkerque win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.4%. Both teams to score: 55.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.