ScoreProb
Ligue 2 France Round 12 2026

Montpellier vs Metz

Montpellier Home · Elo 1,565
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Metz Away · Elo 1,459
Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Montpellier win
Montpellier winPick
45.9%
Draw
25.8%
Metz win
28.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.4%
Under 2.541.6%

How much we know

Montpellier history64 matches
Metz history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Montpellier are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Montpellier are rated 106 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,565 against 1,459. On rating alone Montpellier would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Metz score more

    1.20 goals a game over 64 matches for Montpellier, against 1.52 over 69 for Metz.

  • Montpellier concede fewer

    Montpellier concede 1.27 a game, Metz 1.81.

  • Metz games more often go over 2.5 goals

    34% of Montpellier matches, against 67% for Metz. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Montpellier
Metz
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1564.8
ELO
1459.0
64
ELO · Matches
69
1564.8
Current Team ELO
1459.0
1459.0
Current Opponent ELO
1564.8
105.8
Current ELO Difference
-105.8
0.65
Expected score
0.35
64
History Matches
69
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
53.28
Overperformance
48.40
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.80
2.10
Goals for per game
2.10
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
69
1.39
PPG
1.20
40.6%
Win rate
31.9%
17.2%
Draw rate
24.6%
42.2%
Loss rate
43.5%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.7%
34.4%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
43.5%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
31
1.34
PPG
1.03
37.9%
Win rate
25.8%
20.7%
Draw rate
25.8%
41.4%
Loss rate
48.4%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
71.0%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
29
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.52
64.1%
Scoring rate
72.5%
37.5%
BTTS rate
59.4%
1.55
Goals for per game
1.35
72.4%
Scoring rate
71.0%
58.6%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
64
History Matches
69
1.20
Goals Mean
1.52
1.25
Goals Std
1.42
64.1%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
32.8%
Scored 2+ rate
42.0%
14.1%
Scored 3+ rate
21.7%
1.55
Venue Goals Mean
1.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.81
67.2%
Conceding rate
78.3%
1.69
Goals against per game
2.13
79.3%
Conceding rate
77.4%
0.33
Goals against per game
0.67
33.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
64
History Matches
69
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.81
1.24
Conceded Std
1.63
35.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.4%
14.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.9%
1.69
Venue Conceded Mean
2.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
35.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
35.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
69
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
1.79
Goal Difference Std
2.28
6.00
Stability score
2.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
69
13
Lead Matches
16
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.83
22
Trailing Matches
22
13.6%
Non-loss rate
13.6%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.29
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
41
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
19
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
1.67
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.67
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.83
Portability PPG Std
0.57
2.13
Portability PPG Range
1.57
37.60
Portability Score
46.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO105.8
PPG0.19
GF-0.32
GA-0.55
PPG0.67
PPG0.31
PPG1.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Failed-to-score rate8.4%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.32
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.55
Conceded Std-0.39
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.49
Stability score3.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.96
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate9.6%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.57
Portability Score-9.07
Rest days0.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO105.8
Current Opponent ELO-105.8
Current ELO Difference211.6
Expected score0.30
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Montpellier

W
Annecy0–3Montpellier31 Oct · away
Pick: Annecy 37% · missed
W
Montpellier2–1RED Star FC 9326 Oct · home
Pick: Montpellier 48% · hit
W
Rodez0–3Montpellier19 Oct · away
Pick: Rodez 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Metz

L
Metz1–3PAU30 Oct · home
Pick: Metz 56% · missed
D
Dunkerque1–1Metz23 Oct · away
Pick: Dunkerque 46% · missed
W
Metz3–2Sochaux17 Oct · home
Pick: Metz 45% · hit
L
Dijon4–2Metz12 Oct · away
Pick: Dijon 43% · hit
D
Annecy1–1Metz29 Aug · away
Pick: Annecy 50% · missed

About this match

Montpellier and Metz meet in Ligue 2 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Montpellier win 45.9%, draw 25.8%, Metz win 28.4%. The pick is Montpellier win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.4%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.