ScoreProb
Ligue 3 France Round 12 2026

Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Le Puy Foot

Bourg-en-bresse 01 Home · Elo 1,461
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Le Puy Foot Away · Elo 1,554
Stade Marcel-Verchere, Bourg-en-Bresse Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Le Puy Foot win
Bourg-en-bresse 01 win
29.0%
Draw
30.1%
Le Puy Foot winPick
40.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.7%
No52.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.4%
Under 2.554.6%

How much we know

Bourg-en-bresse 01 history55 matches
Le Puy Foot history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Le Puy Foot are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Le Puy Foot are rated 94 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,554 against 1,461. On rating alone Le Puy Foot would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Le Puy Foot score far more

    0.87 goals a game over 55 matches for Bourg-en-bresse 01, against 1.43 over 58 for Le Puy Foot.

  • Le Puy Foot concede fewer

    Bourg-en-bresse 01 concede 1.29 a game, Le Puy Foot 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Bourg-en-bresse 01 matches, against 45% for Le Puy Foot. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bourg-en-bresse 01
Le Puy Foot
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1460.5
ELO
1554.2
55
ELO · Matches
58
1460.5
Current Team ELO
1554.2
1554.2
Current Opponent ELO
1460.5
-93.70
Current ELO Difference
93.70
0.37
Expected score
0.63
55
History Matches
58
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
47.31
Overperformance
53.08
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.70
0.80
Goals for per game
1.10
1.20
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
58
1.16
PPG
1.71
30.9%
Win rate
48.3%
23.6%
Draw rate
25.9%
45.5%
Loss rate
25.9%
58.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.7%
41.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
30
1.22
PPG
1.87
29.6%
Win rate
56.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
37.0%
Loss rate
26.7%
55.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
43.3%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
27
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.87
Goals for per game
1.43
58.2%
Scoring rate
79.3%
40.0%
BTTS rate
46.6%
0.78
Goals for per game
1.57
55.6%
Scoring rate
76.7%
37.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
58
0.87
Goals Mean
1.43
0.94
Goals Std
1.19
58.2%
Scored 1+ rate
79.3%
20.0%
Scored 2+ rate
39.7%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
15.5%
0.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.57
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.00
70.9%
Conceding rate
62.1%
1.26
Goals against per game
1.00
63.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
58
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.17
Conceded Std
1.08
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.1%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
41.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
41.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
58
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.76
3.31
Stability score
4.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
56
10
Lead Matches
18
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
94.4%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.96
25
Trailing Matches
15
20.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
8.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.86
Rest days
84.86
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
17
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.26
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.03
Portability PPG Range
1.17
54.24
Portability Score
49.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-93.70
PPG-0.54
GF-0.56
GA0.29
PPG0.00
PPG-0.64
PPG0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate21.1%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate21.1%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.56
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate4.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.53
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-1.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate8.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score4.26
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.15
Current Team ELO-93.70
Current Opponent ELO93.70
Current ELO Difference-187.4
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bourg-en-bresse 01

L
La Roche VF2–0Bourg-en-bresse 0131 Oct · away
Pick: La Roche VF 64% · hit
L
Bourg-en-bresse 010–1Fleury 9117 Oct · home
Pick: Fleury 91 40% · hit
L
Aubagne2–0Bourg-en-bresse 0129 Aug · away
Pick: Bourg-en-bresse 01 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Le Puy Foot

D
Le Puy Foot2–2Caen31 Oct · home
Pick: Le Puy Foot 40% · missed
W
Aubagne0–1Le Puy Foot17 Oct · away
Pick: Le Puy Foot 53% · hit
L
Cannes2–0Le Puy Foot29 Aug · away
Pick: Cannes 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bourg-en-bresse 01 and Le Puy Foot meet in Ligue 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:45 UTC. The match is played at Stade Marcel-Verchere, Bourg-en-Bresse. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bourg-en-bresse 01 win 29.0%, draw 30.1%, Le Puy Foot win 40.9%. The pick is Le Puy Foot win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.4%. Both teams to score: 47.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.