ScoreProb
Ligue 3 France Round 12 2026

Caen vs Versailles

Caen Home · Elo 1,484
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Versailles Away · Elo 1,549
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Caen win
Caen winPick
49.6%
Draw
25.0%
Versailles win
25.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.9%
Under 2.550.1%

How much we know

Caen history56 matches
Versailles history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Caen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Versailles are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,549 against 1,484. On rating alone Versailles would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.32 goals a game over 56 matches for Caen, against 1.42 over 53 for Versailles.

  • Versailles concede fewer

    Caen concede 1.45 a game, Versailles 1.17.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Caen matches, against 49% for Versailles. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Caen
Versailles
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.0
ELO
1548.6
56
ELO · Matches
53
1484.0
Current Team ELO
1548.6
1548.6
Current Opponent ELO
1484.0
-64.60
Current ELO Difference
64.60
0.41
Expected score
0.59
56
History Matches
53
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
49.14
Overperformance
52.69
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
3.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.60
2.50
Goals for per game
1.70
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.57
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
53
1.07
PPG
1.53
23.2%
Win rate
41.5%
37.5%
Draw rate
28.3%
39.3%
Loss rate
30.2%
76.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.6%
51.8%
Over 2.5 rate
49.1%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
34.0%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
29
1.32
PPG
1.31
28.6%
Win rate
34.5%
46.4%
Draw rate
27.6%
25.0%
Loss rate
37.9%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
39.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
44.8%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
28
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.32
Goals for per game
1.42
73.2%
Scoring rate
75.5%
57.1%
BTTS rate
50.9%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.31
64.3%
Scoring rate
69.0%
42.9%
BTTS rate
51.7%
3.50
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
56
History Matches
53
1.32
Goals Mean
1.42
1.15
Goals Std
1.11
73.2%
Scored 1+ rate
75.5%
35.7%
Scored 2+ rate
45.3%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
17.0%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.17
75.0%
Conceding rate
66.0%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.34
60.7%
Conceding rate
72.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
56
History Matches
53
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.19
Conceded Std
1.09
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.0%
19.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.1%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
53
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.59
2.25
Stability score
1.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
53
15
Lead Matches
18
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.81
21
Trailing Matches
12
28.6%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.86
Rest days
84.86
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
17
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.15
1.50
Portability PPG Range
0.32
44.95
Portability Score
77.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-64.60
PPG-0.46
GF-0.09
GA0.28
PPG0.00
PPG0.01
PPG0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Failed-to-score rate4.7%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.33
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score0.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.36
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate3.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.47
Portability PPG Range1.18
Portability Score-32.34
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Current Team ELO-64.60
Current Opponent ELO64.60
Current ELO Difference-129.2
Expected score-0.18
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Caen

D
Le Puy Foot2–2Caen31 Oct · away
Pick: Le Puy Foot 40% · missed
W
Caen2–1La Roche VF15 Oct · home
Pick: Caen 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Versailles

W
Versailles4–0Aubagne31 Oct · home
Pick: Versailles 58% · hit
W
Thionville Lusitanos1–2Versailles17 Oct · away
Pick: Thionville Lusitanos 54% · missed
L
Amiens3–0Versailles29 Aug · away
Pick: Amiens 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Caen and Versailles meet in Ligue 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Caen win 49.6%, draw 25.0%, Versailles win 25.4%. The pick is Caen win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.9%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.