ScoreProb
Ligue 3 France Round 12 2026

Concarneau vs Fleury 91

Concarneau Home · Elo 1,492
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fleury 91 Away · Elo 1,529
Stade Guy Piriou, Concarneau Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fleury 91 win
Concarneau win
35.2%
Draw
28.0%
Fleury 91 winPick
36.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.5%
No47.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.5%
Under 2.551.5%

How much we know

Concarneau history60 matches
Fleury 91 history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Fleury 91 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fleury 91 are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,492. On rating alone Fleury 91 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.37 goals a game over 60 matches for Concarneau, against 1.39 over 56 for Fleury 91.

  • Fleury 91 concede fewer

    Concarneau concede 1.32 a game, Fleury 91 1.13.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Concarneau matches, against 52% for Fleury 91. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Concarneau
Fleury 91
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.5
ELO
1528.8
60
ELO · Matches
56
1492.5
Current Team ELO
1528.8
1528.8
Current Opponent ELO
1492.5
-36.28
Current ELO Difference
36.28
0.45
Expected score
0.55
60
History Matches
56
0.00
Residual Mean
0.02
49.75
Overperformance
51.76
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.40
1.80
Goals for per game
0.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
56
1.27
PPG
1.54
30.0%
Win rate
41.1%
36.7%
Draw rate
30.4%
33.3%
Loss rate
28.6%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.8%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
28
1.29
PPG
1.68
32.3%
Win rate
46.4%
32.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
35.5%
Loss rate
25.0%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
51.6%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
32.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
31
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.39
70.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
53.3%
BTTS rate
46.4%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.43
74.2%
Scoring rate
78.6%
58.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
56
1.37
Goals Mean
1.39
1.35
Goals Std
1.22
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
35.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
18.3%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
1.13
70.0%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.04
74.2%
Conceding rate
67.9%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
56
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.19
Conceded Std
1.12
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
15.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
56
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.73
0.30
Stability score
1.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
56
17
Lead Matches
22
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.94
16
Trailing Matches
13
31.3%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.86
Rest days
84.86
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
17
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.30
53.73
Portability Score
45.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-36.28
PPG-0.27
GF-0.03
GA0.19
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.39
PPG1.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate1.4%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate4.4%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.18
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate2.5%
Conceded 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.67
History Matches4
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-0.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.91
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.26
Lead Points Retention-0.23
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.30
Portability Score7.77
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.65
Current Team ELO-36.28
Current Opponent ELO36.28
Current ELO Difference-72.57
Expected score-0.10
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Concarneau

L
Rouen2–1Concarneau31 Oct · away
Pick: Rouen 52% · hit
D
Concarneau1–1Bastia17 Oct · home
Pick: Concarneau 43% · missed
D
Valenciennes0–0Concarneau29 Aug · away
Pick: Valenciennes 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fleury 91

D
Fleury 911–1Gobelins31 Oct · home
Pick: Fleury 91 49% · missed
W
Bourg-en-bresse 010–1Fleury 9117 Oct · away
Pick: Fleury 91 40% · hit
L
Quevilly2–1Fleury 9129 Aug · away
Pick: Fleury 91 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Concarneau and Fleury 91 meet in Ligue 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:45 UTC. The match is played at Stade Guy Piriou, Concarneau. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Concarneau win 35.2%, draw 28.0%, Fleury 91 win 36.9%. The pick is Fleury 91 win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.5%. Both teams to score: 52.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.