ScoreProb
Ligue 3 France Round 12 2026

Rouen vs Bastia

Rouen Home · Elo 1,571
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bastia Away · Elo 1,466
Stade Robert Diochon, Rouen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rouen win
Rouen winPick
49.3%
Draw
28.8%
Bastia win
22.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.6%
No54.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.0%
Under 2.556.0%

How much we know

Rouen history57 matches
Bastia history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Rouen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rouen are rated 105 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,571 against 1,466. On rating alone Rouen would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Rouen score more

    1.30 goals a game over 57 matches for Rouen, against 1.00 over 53 for Bastia.

  • Rouen concede fewer

    Rouen concede 1.00 a game, Bastia 1.21.

  • Rouen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Rouen matches, against 25% for Bastia. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rouen
Bastia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1571.1
ELO
1466.0
57
ELO · Matches
53
1571.1
Current Team ELO
1466.0
1466.0
Current Opponent ELO
1571.1
105.0
Current ELO Difference
-105.0
0.65
Expected score
0.35
57
History Matches
53
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.04
53.64
Overperformance
47.41
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.40
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.30
0.80
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.63
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
53
1.61
PPG
1.11
40.4%
Win rate
26.4%
40.4%
Draw rate
32.1%
19.3%
Loss rate
41.5%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
60.4%
45.6%
Over 2.5 rate
24.5%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
28
1.80
PPG
1.04
48.0%
Win rate
21.4%
36.0%
Draw rate
39.3%
16.0%
Loss rate
39.3%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
25
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
80.7%
Scoring rate
56.6%
63.2%
BTTS rate
34.0%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.04
80.0%
Scoring rate
53.6%
56.0%
BTTS rate
32.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
57
History Matches
53
1.30
Goals Mean
1.00
0.99
Goals Std
1.24
80.7%
Scored 1+ rate
56.6%
31.6%
Scored 2+ rate
26.4%
15.8%
Scored 3+ rate
7.5%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.21
66.7%
Conceding rate
64.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.21
56.0%
Conceding rate
64.3%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
57
History Matches
53
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.21
0.94
Conceded Std
1.22
24.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.8%
7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
19.3%
Failed-to-score rate
43.4%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
46.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
19.3%
Failed-to-score rate
43.4%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
46.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
53
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.08
Goal Difference Std
1.61
4.43
Stability score
1.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
53
18
Lead Matches
14
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.67
11
Trailing Matches
18
36.4%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.86
Rest days
84.86
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.93
18
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.43
Portability PPG Range
0.88
73.24
Portability Score
56.52
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO105.0
PPG0.50
GF0.30
GA-0.21
PPG0.50
PPG0.76
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate24.1%
Scored 2+ rate5.2%
Scored 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.76
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.53
Stability score2.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.15
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate15.1%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate25.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.44
Portability Score16.72
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.59
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.26
Current Team ELO105.0
Current Opponent ELO-105.0
Current ELO Difference210.1
Expected score0.29
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rouen

W
Rouen2–1Concarneau31 Oct · home
Pick: Rouen 52% · hit
L
Gobelins3–1Rouen17 Oct · away
Pick: Rouen 44% · missed
W
Villefranche0–2Rouen29 Aug · away
Pick: Rouen 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bastia

W
Bastia2–0Quevilly31 Oct · home
Pick: Bastia 39% · hit
D
Concarneau1–1Bastia17 Oct · away
Pick: Concarneau 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rouen and Bastia meet in Ligue 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:45 UTC. The match is played at Stade Robert Diochon, Rouen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rouen win 49.3%, draw 28.8%, Bastia win 22.0%. The pick is Rouen win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.0%. Both teams to score: 45.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.