ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone B Italy Group B - 11 2026

Brusaporto vs Piacenza

Brusaporto Home · Elo 1,515
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Piacenza Away · Elo 1,585
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Piacenza win
Brusaporto win
31.6%
Draw
29.8%
Piacenza winPick
38.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.8%
Under 2.551.2%

How much we know

Brusaporto history50 matches
Piacenza history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Piacenza are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Piacenza are rated 70 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,585 against 1,515. On rating alone Piacenza would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Piacenza score more

    1.18 goals a game over 50 matches for Brusaporto, against 1.54 over 52 for Piacenza.

  • Defences are close

    Brusaporto concede 1.00 a game, Piacenza 0.96.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of Brusaporto matches, against 46% for Piacenza. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Brusaporto
Piacenza
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.1
ELO
1584.8
50
ELO · Matches
52
1515.1
Current Team ELO
1584.8
1584.8
Current Opponent ELO
1515.1
-69.72
Current ELO Difference
69.72
0.40
Expected score
0.60
50
History Matches
52
0.01
Residual Mean
0.08
51.01
Overperformance
55.54
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.90
1.30
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
52
1.50
PPG
1.71
42.0%
Win rate
48.1%
24.0%
Draw rate
26.9%
34.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
62.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
27
1.36
PPG
1.56
40.0%
Win rate
40.7%
16.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
44.0%
Loss rate
25.9%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
25
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
1.54
72.0%
Scoring rate
76.9%
46.0%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.12
Goals for per game
1.48
60.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
40.0%
BTTS rate
59.3%
50
History Matches
52
1.18
Goals Mean
1.54
1.01
Goals Std
1.17
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
30.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
16.0%
Scored 3+ rate
21.2%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
0.96
68.0%
Conceding rate
71.2%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.11
76.0%
Conceding rate
77.8%
50
History Matches
52
1.00
Conceded Mean
0.96
0.92
Conceded Std
0.78
24.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.2%
6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.8%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
52
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.39
2.27
Stability score
4.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
52
12
Lead Matches
17
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
94.1%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.96
13
Trailing Matches
17
30.8%
Non-loss rate
41.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
91.94
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
36
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
11
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.15
Portability PPG Range
0.58
87.30
Portability Score
65.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-69.72
PPG-0.21
GF-0.36
GA0.04
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate17.8%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Conceded 2+ rate2.8%
Conceded 3+ rate2.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score-1.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.44
Portability Score22.21
Rest days-83.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO-69.72
Current Opponent ELO69.72
Current ELO Difference-139.4
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Brusaporto

L
Villa Valle5–2Brusaporto1 Nov · away
Pick: Brusaporto 37% · missed
L
Villa Valle1–0Brusaporto28 Oct · away
Pick: Brusaporto 37% · missed
L
Caldiero Terme2–0Brusaporto24 Oct · away
Pick: Caldiero Terme 38% · hit
L
Brusaporto0–1Nibbiano & Valtidone18 Oct · home
Pick: Brusaporto 67% · missed
W
Brusaporto2–1Chievo7 Oct · home
Pick: Brusaporto 38% · hit

Piacenza

W
Piacenza3–2Nibbiano & Valtidone1 Nov · home
Pick: Piacenza 67% · hit
W
Piacenza2–0Sasso Marconi Zola28 Oct · home
Pick: Piacenza 65% · hit
D
Pro Palazzolo1–1Piacenza25 Oct · away
Pick: Pro Palazzolo 42% · missed
W
Piacenza3–1Caldiero Terme18 Oct · home
Pick: Piacenza 40% · hit
W
Lentigione1–3Piacenza7 Oct · away
Pick: Lentigione 46% · missed

About this match

Brusaporto and Piacenza meet in Serie D - Girone B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Brusaporto win 31.6%, draw 29.8%, Piacenza win 38.6%. The pick is Piacenza win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.8%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.