ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone B Italy Group B - 11 2026

Leon vs Virtus Verona

Leon Home · Elo 1,535
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Virtus Verona Away · Elo 1,376
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leon win
Leon winPick
38.8%
Draw
23.7%
Virtus Verona win
37.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%

How much we know

Leon history28 matches
Virtus Verona history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Leon are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Leon are rated 159 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,535 against 1,376. On rating alone Leon would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Leon score more

    1.29 goals a game over 28 matches for Leon, against 1.02 over 60 for Virtus Verona.

  • Leon concede fewer

    Leon concede 1.11 a game, Virtus Verona 1.62.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Leon matches, against 47% for Virtus Verona. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leon
Virtus Verona
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1535.4
ELO
1376.2
28
ELO · Matches
60
1535.4
Current Team ELO
1376.2
1376.2
Current Opponent ELO
1535.4
159.2
Current ELO Difference
-159.2
0.71
Expected score
0.29
28
History Matches
60
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.11
53.63
Overperformance
41.89
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.40
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.50
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
2.10
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
28
Matches
60
1.61
PPG
0.87
46.4%
Win rate
16.7%
21.4%
Draw rate
36.7%
32.1%
Loss rate
46.7%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.7%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
14
Matches
32
1.64
PPG
0.91
42.9%
Win rate
21.9%
35.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
21.4%
Loss rate
53.1%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
14
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.29
Goals for per game
1.02
60.7%
Scoring rate
65.0%
42.9%
BTTS rate
56.7%
1.64
Goals for per game
1.03
71.4%
Scoring rate
65.6%
57.1%
BTTS rate
53.1%
28
History Matches
60
1.29
Goals Mean
1.02
1.22
Goals Std
0.99
60.7%
Scored 1+ rate
65.0%
46.4%
Scored 2+ rate
28.3%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
5.0%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.11
Goals against per game
1.62
71.4%
Conceding rate
85.0%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.84
71.4%
Conceding rate
84.4%
28
History Matches
60
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.62
1.01
Conceded Std
1.40
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.3%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.84
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
28
History Matches
60
0.96
Result entropy
0.93
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.75
4.32
Stability score
6.96
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
28
Eligible Matches
60
2
Lead Matches
13
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.69
6
Trailing Matches
27
33.3%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
3.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
28
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.0
Rest days
92.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.94
6
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
6
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.70
—
Portability PPG Range
1.86
—
Portability Score
41.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
28
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO159.2
PPG0.74
GF0.27
GA-0.51
PPG0.74
PPG0.00
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-32
Clean-sheet rate13.6%
Failed-to-score rate4.3%
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-32
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate18.1%
Scored 3+ rate12.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.47
History Matches-32
Conceded Mean-0.51
Conceded Std-0.39
Clean-sheet rate13.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches-32
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score-2.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches-32
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-21
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate29.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-32
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days89.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.77
Long Rest History Matches-18
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO159.2
Current Opponent ELO-159.2
Current ELO Difference318.5
Expected score0.43
History Matches-32
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance11.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leon

W
Tritium0–1Leon1 Nov · away
Pick: Leon 38% · hit
L
Leon0–4Chievo25 Oct · home
Pick: Chievo 46% · hit
W
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo1–2Leon18 Oct · away
Pick: Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 49% · missed
W
Real Calepina0–2Leon7 Oct · away
Pick: Real Calepina 55% · missed
W
Club Milano1–2Leon4 Oct · away
Pick: Club Milano 58% · missed

Virtus Verona

L
Virtus Verona2–3Milan II1 Nov · home
Pick: Virtus Verona 43% · missed
L
Nibbiano & Valtidone1–0Virtus Verona25 Oct · away
Pick: Nibbiano & Valtidone 34% · hit
W
Virtus Verona2–0Tritium18 Oct · home
Pick: Virtus Verona 64% · hit
L
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo3–0Virtus Verona4 Oct · away
Pick: Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Leon and Virtus Verona meet in Serie D - Girone B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Leon win 38.8%, draw 23.7%, Virtus Verona win 37.6%. The pick is Leon win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.