ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone B Italy Group B - 11 2026

Caldiero Terme vs Villa Valle

Caldiero Terme Home · Elo 1,493
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Villa Valle Away · Elo 1,492
Mario Gavagnin-Sinibaldo Nocini, Verona Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Caldiero Terme win
Caldiero Terme winPick
48.6%
Draw
25.4%
Villa Valle win
25.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.6%
No45.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%

How much we know

Caldiero Terme history52 matches
Villa Valle history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Caldiero Terme are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,493 against 1,492. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.37 goals a game over 52 matches for Caldiero Terme, against 1.35 over 48 for Villa Valle.

  • Defences are close

    Caldiero Terme concede 1.25 a game, Villa Valle 1.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Caldiero Terme matches, against 52% for Villa Valle. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 3 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Caldiero Terme
Villa Valle
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.9
ELO
1492.3
52
ELO · Matches
48
1492.9
Current Team ELO
1492.3
1492.3
Current Opponent ELO
1492.9
0.62
Current ELO Difference
-0.62
0.50
Expected score
0.50
52
History Matches
48
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
49.57
Overperformance
49.93
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.63
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
48
1.23
PPG
1.46
26.9%
Win rate
41.7%
42.3%
Draw rate
20.8%
30.8%
Loss rate
37.5%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
52.1%
28.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
22
1.31
PPG
1.14
30.8%
Win rate
31.8%
38.5%
Draw rate
18.2%
30.8%
Loss rate
50.0%
88.5%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
26
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.37
Goals for per game
1.35
78.8%
Scoring rate
75.0%
61.5%
BTTS rate
58.3%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.00
84.6%
Scoring rate
63.6%
65.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
52
History Matches
48
1.37
Goals Mean
1.35
1.14
Goals Std
1.13
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
38.5%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
11.5%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.25
Goals against per game
1.38
71.2%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.55
76.9%
Conceding rate
86.4%
52
History Matches
48
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.14
Conceded Std
1.07
34.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.6%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.55
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
48
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.75
1.71
Stability score
3.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
48
20
Lead Matches
15
55.0%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.65
Lead Points Retention
0.91
12
Trailing Matches
12
25.0%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.0
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
41
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
9
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.19
Portability PPG Range
0.52
84.02
Portability Score
65.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO0.62
PPG-0.23
GF0.01
GA-0.13
PPG0.17
PPG0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate3.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.97
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches4
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-1.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.22
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.32
Lead Points Retention-0.26
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score18.39
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Current Team ELO0.62
Current Opponent ELO-0.62
Current ELO Difference1.23
Expected score0.00
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Caldiero Terme

L
Rovato Vertovese3–1Caldiero Terme1 Nov · away
Pick: Caldiero Terme 38% · missed
L
Caldiero Terme0–1Cjarlins Muzane28 Oct · home
Pick: Caldiero Terme 46% · missed
W
Caldiero Terme2–0Brusaporto24 Oct · home
Pick: Caldiero Terme 38% · hit
L
Piacenza3–1Caldiero Terme18 Oct · away
Pick: Piacenza 40% · hit
W
Este0–2Caldiero Terme7 Oct · away
Pick: Este 38% · missed

Villa Valle

W
Villa Valle5–2Brusaporto1 Nov · home
Pick: Brusaporto 37% · missed
W
Villa Valle1–0Brusaporto28 Oct · home
Pick: Brusaporto 37% · missed
D
Scanzorosciate0–0Villa Valle24 Oct · away
Pick: Villa Valle 38% · missed
W
Villa Valle1–0Pro Palazzolo18 Oct · home
Pick: Pro Palazzolo 45% · missed
D
Villa Valle0–0Fiorenzuola4 Oct · home
Pick: Villa Valle 62% · missed

About this match

Caldiero Terme and Villa Valle meet in Serie D - Girone B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Mario Gavagnin-Sinibaldo Nocini, Verona. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Caldiero Terme win 48.6%, draw 25.4%, Villa Valle win 25.9%. The pick is Caldiero Terme win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.0%. Both teams to score: 54.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.