ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone B Italy Group B - 11 2026

Fiorenzuola vs Club Milano

Fiorenzuola Home · Elo 1,454
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Club Milano Away · Elo 1,491
Stadio comunale Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Club Milano win
Fiorenzuola win
25.1%
Draw
29.4%
Club Milano winPick
45.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.8%
No50.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%

How much we know

Fiorenzuola history14 matches
Club Milano history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Club Milano are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Club Milano are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,491 against 1,454. On rating alone Club Milano would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Club Milano score far more

    0.57 goals a game over 14 matches for Fiorenzuola, against 1.27 over 55 for Club Milano.

  • Defences are close

    Fiorenzuola concede 1.36 a game, Club Milano 1.47.

  • Club Milano games more often go over 2.5 goals

    36% of Fiorenzuola matches, against 58% for Club Milano. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fiorenzuola
Club Milano
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1454.3
ELO
1491.5
14
ELO · Matches
55
1454.3
Current Team ELO
1491.5
1491.5
Current Opponent ELO
1454.3
-37.16
Current ELO Difference
37.16
0.45
Expected score
0.55
14
History Matches
55
-0.17
Residual Mean
-0.01
42.81
Overperformance
49.62
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
0.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.90
0.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.78
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
14
Matches
55
0.79
PPG
1.27
21.4%
Win rate
36.4%
14.3%
Draw rate
18.2%
64.3%
Loss rate
45.5%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
35.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.2%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
27
0.67
PPG
0.78
16.7%
Win rate
18.5%
16.7%
Draw rate
22.2%
66.7%
Loss rate
59.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
6
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.57
Goals for per game
1.27
42.9%
Scoring rate
65.5%
28.6%
BTTS rate
54.5%
0.33
Goals for per game
0.93
33.3%
Scoring rate
59.3%
16.7%
BTTS rate
55.6%
14
History Matches
55
0.57
Goals Mean
1.27
0.73
Goals Std
1.27
42.9%
Scored 1+ rate
65.5%
14.3%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.7%
0.33
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.36
Goals against per game
1.47
78.6%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.85
83.3%
Conceding rate
92.6%
14
History Matches
55
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.47
0.97
Conceded Std
1.16
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.85
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
7.4%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
7.4%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
14
History Matches
55
0.81
Result entropy
0.94
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.82
18.80
Stability score
5.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
14
Eligible Matches
54
3
Lead Matches
11
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.85
6
Trailing Matches
19
0.0%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.21
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
91.94
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
6
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
9
Normal Rest History Matches
39
0.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
4
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.16
—
Portability PPG Range
0.39
—
Portability Score
76.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
14
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-37.16
PPG-0.49
GF-0.70
GA-0.12
PPG-0.11
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-41
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Failed-to-score rate22.6%
History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Failed-to-score rate25.9%
History Matches-41
Goals Mean-0.70
Goals Std-0.54
Scored 1+ rate-0.23
Scored 2+ rate-0.26
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.11
History Matches-41
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Conceded 2+ rate2.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.41
History Matches-41
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.40
Stability score13.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.08
Eligible Matches-40
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate18.2%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches-40
First Half Goals For Mean-0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-97.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest History Matches-30
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO-37.16
Current Opponent ELO37.16
Current ELO Difference-74.33
Expected score-0.11
History Matches-41
Residual Mean-0.17
Overperformance-6.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.40

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fiorenzuola

L
Chievo2–1Fiorenzuola31 Oct · away
Pick: Chievo 63% · hit
W
Fiorenzuola2–1Rovato Vertovese25 Oct · home
Pick: Rovato Vertovese 40% · missed
L
Pavonese2–1Fiorenzuola18 Oct · away
Pick: Pavonese 36% · hit
D
Villa Valle0–0Fiorenzuola4 Oct · away
Pick: Villa Valle 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Club Milano

L
Club Milano1–3Scanzorosciate1 Nov · home
Pick: Club Milano 53% · missed
D
Milan II1–1Club Milano25 Oct · away
Pick: Milan II 44% · missed
L
Club Milano1–2Real Calepina18 Oct · home
Pick: Club Milano 44% · missed
L
Club Milano1–2Leon4 Oct · home
Pick: Club Milano 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Fiorenzuola and Club Milano meet in Serie D - Girone B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio comunale. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Fiorenzuola win 25.1%, draw 29.4%, Club Milano win 45.4%. The pick is Club Milano win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.9%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.