ScoreProb
NB III - Southwest Hungary Southwest - 15 2026

Budafoki LC vs Kaposvar

Budafoki LC Home · Elo 1,475
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kaposvar Away · Elo 1,642
Promontor utcai Stadion, Budapest Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kaposvar win
Budafoki LC win
16.3%
Draw
19.3%
Kaposvar winPick
64.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.6%
Under 2.542.4%

How much we know

Budafoki LC history54 matches
Kaposvar history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Kaposvar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kaposvar are rated 167 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,642 against 1,475. On rating alone Kaposvar would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Kaposvar score far more

    1.30 goals a game over 54 matches for Budafoki LC, against 2.32 over 50 for Kaposvar.

  • Kaposvar concede fewer

    Budafoki LC concede 1.59 a game, Kaposvar 0.98.

  • Kaposvar games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Budafoki LC matches, against 72% for Kaposvar. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Budafoki LC
Kaposvar
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1474.8
ELO
1641.9
54
ELO · Matches
50
1474.8
Current Team ELO
1641.9
1641.9
Current Opponent ELO
1474.8
-167.1
Current ELO Difference
167.1
0.28
Expected score
0.72
54
History Matches
50
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.15
47.71
Overperformance
60.43
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
3.00
1.60
Goals for per game
3.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.10
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
1.30
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.60
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.15
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.41
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
50
1.11
PPG
2.18
29.6%
Win rate
68.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
14.0%
48.1%
Loss rate
18.0%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
86.0%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
31.5%
Over 3.5 rate
42.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
23
1.25
PPG
2.30
29.2%
Win rate
73.9%
37.5%
Draw rate
8.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
17.4%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.2%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
24
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
2.32
72.2%
Scoring rate
92.0%
51.9%
BTTS rate
58.0%
1.46
Goals for per game
2.17
79.2%
Scoring rate
87.0%
54.2%
BTTS rate
43.5%
1.25
Goals for per game
4.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
54
History Matches
50
1.30
Goals Mean
2.32
0.96
Goals Std
1.42
72.2%
Scored 1+ rate
92.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
72.0%
7.4%
Scored 3+ rate
42.0%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
2.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.59
Goals against per game
0.98
75.9%
Conceding rate
64.0%
1.42
Goals against per game
0.78
70.8%
Conceding rate
52.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.33
25.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
54
History Matches
50
1.59
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.27
Conceded Std
0.97
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.0%
24.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.0%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
0.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
8.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
47.8%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
8.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
47.8%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
50
0.95
Result entropy
0.77
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.75
4.74
Stability score
22.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
49
15
Lead Matches
26
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
96.2%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.96
22
Trailing Matches
10
31.8%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
1.24
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.85
Rest days
77.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.19
25
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.12
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
1.75
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
4
Current Competition Matches
3
1.75
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.67
5
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.43
1.40
Portability PPG Range
0.92
46.14
Portability Score
53.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-167.1
PPG-1.07
GF-1.02
GA0.61
PPG-1.25
PPG-1.05
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate19.8%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate7.8%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-1.02
Goals Std-0.47
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.35
Venue Goals Mean-0.72
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.24
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.61
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate26.0%
Conceded 3+ rate16.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.51
History Matches4
Result entropy0.18
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score-18.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.90
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate4.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.42
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.48
Portability Score-7.63
Rest days5.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.99
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.20
Current Team ELO-167.1
Current Opponent ELO167.1
Current ELO Difference-334.3
Expected score-0.45
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.18
Overperformance-12.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Budafoki LC

L
Iváncsa2–1Budafoki LC31 Oct · away
Pick: Iváncsa 53% · hit
D
Budafoki LC2–2Érdi VSE24 Oct · home
Pick: Érdi VSE 38% · missed
L
Ferencváros II3–1Budafoki LC17 Oct · away
Pick: Ferencváros II 40% · hit
W
Budaörs1–3Budafoki LC29 Aug · away
Pick: Budafoki LC 39% · hit
W
Budafoki LC4–0Szekszárd26 Aug · home
Pick: Budafoki LC 76% · hit

Kaposvar

W
Kaposvar2–0PTE-PEAC31 Oct · home
Pick: Kaposvar 75% · hit
L
Kaposvar0–2Ajka27 Oct · home
Pick: Kaposvar 46% · missed
W
MTK Budapest II3–4Kaposvar24 Oct · away
Pick: Kaposvar 60% · hit
W
Kaposvar7–0Sárbogárd17 Oct · home
Pick: Kaposvar 89% · hit
W
Dunaharaszti MTK2–4Kaposvar29 Aug · away
Pick: Kaposvar 66% · hit

About this match

Budafoki LC and Kaposvar meet in NB III - Southwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Promontor utcai Stadion, Budapest. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Budafoki LC win 16.3%, draw 19.3%, Kaposvar win 64.4%. The pick is Kaposvar win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.6%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.