ScoreProb
NB III - Southwest Hungary Southwest - 15 2026

Szekszárd vs Érdi VSE

Szekszárd Home · Elo 1,399
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Érdi VSE Away · Elo 1,568
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Érdi VSE win
Szekszárd win
12.9%
Draw
10.7%
Érdi VSE winPick
76.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.5%
Under 2.532.5%

How much we know

Szekszárd history48 matches
Érdi VSE history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (76.5%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Érdi VSE are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Érdi VSE are rated 169 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,399. On rating alone Érdi VSE would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Érdi VSE score more

    1.21 goals a game over 48 matches for Szekszárd, against 1.50 over 50 for Érdi VSE.

  • Érdi VSE concede fewer

    Szekszárd concede 2.44 a game, Érdi VSE 1.32.

  • Szekszárd games more often go over 2.5 goals

    73% of Szekszárd matches, against 50% for Érdi VSE. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Szekszárd
Érdi VSE
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1398.7
ELO
1568.2
48
ELO · Matches
50
1398.7
Current Team ELO
1568.2
1568.2
Current Opponent ELO
1398.7
-169.4
Current ELO Difference
169.4
0.27
Expected score
0.73
48
History Matches
50
-0.11
Residual Mean
0.07
42.39
Overperformance
55.06
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
2.00
3.60
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.80
0.90
Goals for per game
2.10
3.40
Goals against per game
1.90
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
3.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
50
0.88
PPG
1.64
25.0%
Win rate
48.0%
12.5%
Draw rate
20.0%
62.5%
Loss rate
32.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
74.0%
72.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
52.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
2.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
24
1.52
PPG
1.38
47.8%
Win rate
37.5%
8.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
43.5%
Loss rate
37.5%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
2.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
23
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.21
Goals for per game
1.50
58.3%
Scoring rate
78.0%
43.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.46
69.6%
Scoring rate
79.2%
43.5%
BTTS rate
58.3%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.33
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
50
1.21
Goals Mean
1.50
1.54
Goals Std
1.20
58.3%
Scored 1+ rate
78.0%
27.1%
Scored 2+ rate
46.0%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
18.0%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.44
Goals against per game
1.32
83.3%
Conceding rate
68.0%
1.65
Goals against per game
1.46
73.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
4.00
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
50
2.44
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.82
Conceded Std
1.32
64.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
47.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.0%
1.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
50
0.82
Result entropy
0.95
2.69
Goal Difference Std
1.75
18.06
Stability score
5.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
50
8
Lead Matches
17
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.88
28
Trailing Matches
10
10.7%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
3.6%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
1.25
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
1.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.85
Rest days
77.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
30
Normal Rest History Matches
32
0.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
15
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.67
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
4
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-4.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
4
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.17
1.03
Portability PPG Range
0.43
52.66
Portability Score
74.94
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-169.4
PPG-0.77
GF-0.29
GA1.12
PPG-1.67
PPG0.15
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate19.7%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate9.6%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean1.12
Conceded Std0.51
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate24.6%
Conceded 3+ rate31.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.86
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std0.94
Stability score12.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.88
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches18
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.67
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.28
Portability PPG Range0.61
Portability Score-22.28
Rest days5.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.88
Current Team ELO-169.4
Current Opponent ELO169.4
Current ELO Difference-338.9
Expected score-0.45
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.18
Overperformance-12.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Szekszárd

L
Ferencváros II5–0Szekszárd31 Oct · away
Pick: Ferencváros II 79% · hit
L
Szekszárd1–2Majosi24 Oct · home
Pick: Majosi 77% · hit
L
Pécsi MFC3–0Szekszárd17 Oct · away
Pick: Pécsi MFC 89% · hit
L
Szekszárd1–3Siofok29 Aug · home
Pick: Siofok 74% · hit
L
Budafoki LC4–0Szekszárd26 Aug · away
Pick: Budafoki LC 76% · hit

Érdi VSE

W
Érdi VSE2–1Siofok31 Oct · home
Pick: Érdi VSE 51% · hit
D
Budafoki LC2–2Érdi VSE24 Oct · away
Pick: Érdi VSE 38% · missed
W
Érdi VSE3–1PTE-PEAC17 Oct · home
Pick: Érdi VSE 53% · hit
L
Majosi3–2Érdi VSE30 Aug · away
Pick: Majosi 40% · hit
L
Érdi VSE1–2Pécsi MFC26 Aug · home
Pick: Pécsi MFC 58% · hit

About this match

Szekszárd and Érdi VSE meet in NB III - Southwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Szekszárd win 12.9%, draw 10.7%, Érdi VSE win 76.5%. The pick is Érdi VSE win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.5%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.