ScoreProb
1. Liga Promotion Switzerland Round 15 2026

Bulle vs Zürich II

Bulle Home · Elo 1,528
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zürich II Away · Elo 1,473
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bulle win
Bulle winPick
62.5%
Draw
14.8%
Zürich II win
22.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.1%
No33.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.7%
Under 2.528.3%

How much we know

Bulle history61 matches
Zürich II history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.5%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Bulle are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bulle are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,528 against 1,473. On rating alone Bulle would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Bulle score more

    1.87 goals a game over 61 matches for Bulle, against 1.59 over 56 for Zürich II.

  • Defences are close

    Bulle concede 1.82 a game, Zürich II 1.80.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of Bulle matches, against 68% for Zürich II. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bulle
Zürich II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1527.8
ELO
1472.9
61
ELO · Matches
56
1527.8
Current Team ELO
1472.9
1472.9
Current Opponent ELO
1527.8
54.89
Current ELO Difference
-54.89
0.58
Expected score
0.42
61
History Matches
56
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
51.52
Overperformance
47.78
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.00
2.80
Goals for per game
2.10
1.80
Goals against per game
2.30
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.17
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
56
1.31
PPG
1.20
34.4%
Win rate
32.1%
27.9%
Draw rate
23.2%
37.7%
Loss rate
44.6%
95.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
68.9%
Over 2.5 rate
67.9%
50.8%
Over 3.5 rate
48.2%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
30
1.28
PPG
1.33
37.9%
Win rate
36.7%
13.8%
Draw rate
23.3%
48.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
93.1%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
72.4%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
48.3%
Over 3.5 rate
56.7%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
29
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.87
Goals for per game
1.59
95.1%
Scoring rate
80.4%
83.6%
BTTS rate
69.6%
1.93
Goals for per game
1.70
93.1%
Scoring rate
76.7%
72.4%
BTTS rate
66.7%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
61
History Matches
56
1.87
Goals Mean
1.59
1.19
Goals Std
1.41
95.1%
Scored 1+ rate
80.4%
49.2%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
27.9%
Scored 3+ rate
21.4%
1.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.82
Goals against per game
1.80
86.9%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.79
Goals against per game
1.83
79.3%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
56
1.82
Conceded Mean
1.80
1.21
Conceded Std
1.32
55.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
26.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.4%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
4.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
6.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
13.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
4.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
6.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
13.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
56
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.72
Goal Difference Std
2.01
0.70
Stability score
3.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
53
20
Lead Matches
18
55.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.65
Lead Points Retention
0.74
19
Trailing Matches
22
36.8%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.98
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.13
Rest days
77.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
30
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.96
26
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.31
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
2.33
PPG
1.75
66.7%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
3
Current Competition Matches
4
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.75
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
6
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.28
1.67
Portability PPG Range
0.63
43.50
Portability Score
64.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO54.89
PPG0.12
GF0.28
GA0.02
PPG0.58
PPG-0.06
PPG0.60
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate4.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate14.7%
Scored 2+ rate6.3%
Scored 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.09
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate5.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches5
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score-2.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.37
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate18.7%
Trailing Win Rate6.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.58
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.08
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.37
Portability PPG Range1.04
Portability Score-20.80
Rest days0.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Current Team ELO54.89
Current Opponent ELO-54.89
Current ELO Difference109.8
Expected score0.16
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bulle

W
Bellinzona0–1Bulle1 Nov · away
Pick: Bulle 69% · hit
W
Bulle3–2Grand-Saconnex25 Oct · home
Pick: Bulle 49% · hit
W
Kreuzlingen2–3Bulle21 Oct · away
Pick: Bulle 50% · hit
L
Bulle0–1FC WIL 190017 Oct · home
Pick: FC WIL 1900 43% · hit
D
Bulle1–1Biel-Bienne30 Aug · home
Pick: Biel-Bienne 43% · missed

Zürich II

W
Zürich II6–1Lugano II31 Oct · home
Pick: Zürich II 53% · hit
L
Brühl3–1Zürich II24 Oct · away
Pick: Brühl 62% · hit
W
Zürich II2–1YF Juventus17 Oct · home
Pick: Zürich II 51% · hit
W
Bellinzona0–4Zürich II4 Oct · away
Pick: Zürich II 50% · hit
W
Zürich II3–1FC Schaffhausen30 Aug · home
Pick: FC Schaffhausen 51% · missed

About this match

Bulle and Zürich II meet in 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bulle win 62.5%, draw 14.8%, Zürich II win 22.7%. The pick is Bulle win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.7%. Both teams to score: 66.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.