ScoreProb
1. Liga Promotion Switzerland Round 15 2026

Lugano II vs YF Juventus

Lugano II Home · Elo 1,425
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
YF Juventus Away · Elo 1,602
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: YF Juventus win
Lugano II win
37.5%
Draw
24.4%
YF Juventus winPick
38.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.9%
Under 2.534.1%

How much we know

Lugano II history59 matches
YF Juventus history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why YF Juventus are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • YF Juventus are rated 177 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,602 against 1,425. On rating alone YF Juventus would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • YF Juventus score more

    1.39 goals a game over 59 matches for Lugano II, against 2.09 over 65 for YF Juventus.

  • YF Juventus concede fewer

    Lugano II concede 1.95 a game, YF Juventus 1.14.

  • YF Juventus games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Lugano II matches, against 69% for YF Juventus. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lugano II
YF Juventus
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1425.2
ELO
1601.8
59
ELO · Matches
65
1425.2
Current Team ELO
1601.8
1601.8
Current Opponent ELO
1425.2
-176.6
Current ELO Difference
176.6
0.27
Expected score
0.73
59
History Matches
65
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.08
45.45
Overperformance
56.08
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
3.20
Goals against per game
3.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.30
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
2.70
Goals against per game
2.00
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
2.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.90
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
65
1.07
PPG
1.95
25.4%
Win rate
60.0%
30.5%
Draw rate
15.4%
44.1%
Loss rate
24.6%
81.4%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
31
1.20
PPG
1.97
26.7%
Win rate
61.3%
40.0%
Draw rate
12.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
25.8%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.1%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
74.2%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.7%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
30
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
2.09
71.2%
Scoring rate
89.2%
61.0%
BTTS rate
56.9%
1.30
Goals for per game
2.10
63.3%
Scoring rate
90.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
64.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
59
History Matches
65
1.39
Goals Mean
2.09
1.25
Goals Std
1.48
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
89.2%
42.4%
Scored 2+ rate
58.5%
15.3%
Scored 3+ rate
33.8%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
2.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.95
Goals against per game
1.14
81.4%
Conceding rate
64.6%
1.70
Goals against per game
1.16
73.3%
Conceding rate
74.2%
3.75
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
59
History Matches
65
1.95
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.55
Conceded Std
1.26
55.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.6%
30.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.4%
1.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.16
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.8%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
9.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.8%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
9.7%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
65
0.98
Result entropy
0.86
1.94
Goal Difference Std
2.20
2.47
Stability score
14.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
55
15
Lead Matches
30
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.91
22
Trailing Matches
7
22.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
1.04
0.93
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
1.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.15
Rest days
77.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
42
0.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.90
25
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.24
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
0.75
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
4
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.10
Portability PPG Range
1.62
55.05
Portability Score
50.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-176.6
PPG-0.89
GF-0.70
GA0.81
PPG0.00
PPG-0.77
PPG0.00
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate18.0%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.9%
Failed-to-score rate27.0%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.70
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.81
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate31.3%
Conceded 3+ rate15.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.55
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score-12.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.91
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate22.7%
Trailing Win Rate4.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.51
Portability Score4.98
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.04
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.96
Current Team ELO-176.6
Current Opponent ELO176.6
Current ELO Difference-353.2
Expected score-0.47
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-10.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lugano II

L
Zürich II6–1Lugano II31 Oct · away
Pick: Zürich II 53% · hit
D
Lugano II1–1Bellinzona25 Oct · home
Pick: Lugano II 43% · missed
W
Grand-Saconnex1–2Lugano II17 Oct · away
Pick: Grand-Saconnex 64% · missed
W
Lugano II3–2Bavois29 Aug · home
Pick: Bavois 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

YF Juventus

L
YF Juventus0–2Brühl31 Oct · home
Pick: YF Juventus 42% · missed
W
YF Juventus3–1Breitenrain24 Oct · home
Pick: YF Juventus 43% · hit
L
Zürich II2–1YF Juventus17 Oct · away
Pick: Zürich II 51% · hit
L
YF Juventus2–3Basel II29 Aug · home
Pick: YF Juventus 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lugano II and YF Juventus meet in 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Lugano II win 37.5%, draw 24.4%, YF Juventus win 38.1%. The pick is YF Juventus win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.9%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.