ScoreProb
1. Liga Promotion Switzerland Round 15 2026

Luzern II vs Grand-Saconnex

Luzern II Home · Elo 1,441
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Grand-Saconnex Away · Elo 1,530
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Grand-Saconnex win
Luzern II win
34.0%
Draw
18.4%
Grand-Saconnex winPick
47.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes70.5%
No29.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.578.3%
Under 2.521.7%

How much we know

Luzern II history54 matches
Grand-Saconnex history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Grand-Saconnex are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Grand-Saconnex are rated 89 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,530 against 1,441. On rating alone Grand-Saconnex would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.15 goals a game over 54 matches for Luzern II, against 2.17 over 63 for Grand-Saconnex.

  • Grand-Saconnex concede fewer

    Luzern II concede 2.28 a game, Grand-Saconnex 1.95.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    80% of Luzern II matches, against 76% for Grand-Saconnex. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Luzern II
Grand-Saconnex
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1440.7
ELO
1530.2
54
ELO · Matches
63
1440.7
Current Team ELO
1530.2
1530.2
Current Opponent ELO
1440.7
-89.50
Current ELO Difference
89.50
0.37
Expected score
0.63
54
History Matches
63
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.02
46.15
Overperformance
51.73
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
2.20
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.10
2.20
Goals for per game
2.30
2.40
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
63
1.04
PPG
1.38
24.1%
Win rate
38.1%
31.5%
Draw rate
23.8%
44.4%
Loss rate
38.1%
94.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
79.6%
Over 2.5 rate
76.2%
72.2%
Over 3.5 rate
60.3%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
32
1.07
PPG
1.22
22.2%
Win rate
31.3%
40.7%
Draw rate
28.1%
37.0%
Loss rate
40.6%
96.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
74.1%
Over 2.5 rate
71.9%
70.4%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
27
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.15
Goals for per game
2.17
85.2%
Scoring rate
90.5%
81.5%
BTTS rate
74.6%
2.04
Goals for per game
1.78
81.5%
Scoring rate
84.4%
77.8%
BTTS rate
68.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
54
History Matches
63
2.15
Goals Mean
2.17
1.63
Goals Std
1.54
85.2%
Scored 1+ rate
90.5%
64.8%
Scored 2+ rate
58.7%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
39.7%
2.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.78
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.28
Goals against per game
1.95
92.6%
Conceding rate
81.0%
2.11
Goals against per game
2.00
92.6%
Conceding rate
81.3%
2.25
Goals against per game
1.75
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
54
History Matches
63
2.28
Conceded Mean
1.95
1.27
Conceded Std
1.40
75.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.1%
38.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
39.7%
2.11
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
7.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
9.5%
7.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
7.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
9.5%
7.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.6%
7.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
63
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.98
Goal Difference Std
2.11
2.87
Stability score
1.97
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
62
17
Lead Matches
27
52.9%
Lead Win Rate
70.4%
0.63
Lead Points Retention
0.75
21
Trailing Matches
15
28.6%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.17
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.18
1.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.19
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.08
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
31
0.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
14
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
1.50
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.34
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
3
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.46
0.43
Portability PPG Range
1.22
72.67
Portability Score
51.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-89.50
PPG-0.34
GF-0.03
GA0.33
PPG-0.75
PPG-0.14
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate5.3%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate2.9%
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate6.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.74
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.26
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score0.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.16
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate15.2%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.80
Portability Score20.83
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO-89.50
Current Opponent ELO89.50
Current ELO Difference-179.0
Expected score-0.25
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Luzern II

W
Kreuzlingen2–3Luzern II31 Oct · away
Pick: Kreuzlingen 55% · missed
D
Cham2–2Luzern II28 Oct · away
Pick: Cham 62% · missed
L
Luzern II1–2Paradiso24 Oct · home
Pick: Luzern II 39% · missed
D
Young Boys II2–2Luzern II30 Aug · away
Pick: Young Boys II 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Grand-Saconnex

W
Grand-Saconnex2–1Young Boys II31 Oct · home
Pick: Grand-Saconnex 62% · hit
L
Bulle3–2Grand-Saconnex25 Oct · away
Pick: Bulle 49% · hit
L
Grand-Saconnex1–2Lugano II17 Oct · home
Pick: Grand-Saconnex 64% · missed
L
Grand-Saconnex2–5Paradiso29 Aug · home
Pick: Grand-Saconnex 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Luzern II and Grand-Saconnex meet in 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Luzern II win 34.0%, draw 18.4%, Grand-Saconnex win 47.7%. The pick is Grand-Saconnex win. Over 2.5 goals: 78.3%. Both teams to score: 70.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.