ScoreProb
Premier League 2 Division One England Regular Season 2026

Burnley U21 vs Manchester United U21

Burnley U21 Home · Elo 1,464
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Manchester United U21 Away · Elo 1,583
Burnley FC Training Centre Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Manchester United U21 win
Burnley U21 win
25.9%
Draw
23.8%
Manchester United U21 winPick
50.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.3%
No36.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.6%
Under 2.531.4%

How much we know

Burnley U21 history54 matches
Manchester United U21 history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Manchester United U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Manchester United U21 are rated 119 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,583 against 1,464. On rating alone Manchester United U21 would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Manchester United U21 score more

    1.78 goals a game over 54 matches for Burnley U21, against 2.02 over 53 for Manchester United U21.

  • Manchester United U21 concede fewer

    Burnley U21 concede 1.72 a game, Manchester United U21 1.49.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Burnley U21 matches, against 64% for Manchester United U21. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Burnley U21
Manchester United U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1464.4
ELO
1583.4
54
ELO · Matches
53
1464.4
Current Team ELO
1583.4
1583.4
Current Opponent ELO
1464.4
-119.0
Current ELO Difference
119.0
0.34
Expected score
0.66
54
History Matches
53
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.06
46.57
Overperformance
54.69
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.62
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
53
1.37
PPG
1.81
42.6%
Win rate
54.7%
9.3%
Draw rate
17.0%
48.1%
Loss rate
28.3%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.2%
46.3%
Over 3.5 rate
45.3%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
30
1.26
PPG
1.67
39.1%
Win rate
50.0%
8.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
52.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
23
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.78
Goals for per game
2.02
74.1%
Scoring rate
81.1%
59.3%
BTTS rate
62.3%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.73
69.6%
Scoring rate
76.7%
60.9%
BTTS rate
53.3%
3.00
Goals for per game
5.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
54
History Matches
53
1.78
Goals Mean
2.02
1.58
Goals Std
1.55
74.1%
Scored 1+ rate
81.1%
46.3%
Scored 2+ rate
58.5%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
30.2%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.72
Goals against per game
1.49
81.5%
Conceding rate
81.1%
1.70
Goals against per game
1.43
91.3%
Conceding rate
76.7%
4.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
54
History Matches
53
1.72
Conceded Mean
1.49
1.39
Conceded Std
1.19
55.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.6%
20.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.9%
1.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
8.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
8.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
53
0.85
Result entropy
0.90
2.31
Goal Difference Std
2.18
14.82
Stability score
10.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
53
21
Lead Matches
26
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.8%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.86
16
Trailing Matches
15
0.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.04
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.79
Rest days
75.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
27
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
18
Long Rest History Matches
24
0.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
5.00
7
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.88
Portability PPG Std
0.56
2.15
Portability PPG Range
1.42
36.32
Portability Score
47.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-119.0
PPG-0.44
GF-0.24
GA0.23
PPG-3.00
PPG-0.41
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.23
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score4.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate4.9%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.40
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-6.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.32
Portability PPG Range0.73
Portability Score-10.88
Rest days3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.58
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.93
Current Team ELO-119.0
Current Opponent ELO119.0
Current ELO Difference-238.0
Expected score-0.33
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Burnley U21

L
West Ham United U213–1Burnley U2123 Oct · away
Pick: West Ham United U21 55% · hit
L
Burnley U210–1Aston Villa U2117 Oct · home
Pick: Aston Villa U21 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Manchester United U21

L
Manchester United U212–3Monaco U2130 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester United U21 69% · missed
L
Nottingham Forest U213–2Manchester United U2116 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester United U21 42% · missed
W
Manchester United U214–1Leicester City U2131 Aug · home
Pick: Manchester United U21 56% · hit
W
Manchester United U215–0Ipswich Town U2124 Aug · home
Pick: Manchester United U21 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Burnley U21 and Manchester United U21 meet in Premier League 2 Division One on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Burnley FC Training Centre. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Burnley U21 win 25.9%, draw 23.8%, Manchester United U21 win 50.3%. The pick is Manchester United U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.6%. Both teams to score: 63.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.