ScoreProb
Premier League 2 Division One England Regular Season 2026

Tottenham Hotspur U21 vs Chelsea U21

Tottenham Hotspur U21 Home · Elo 1,511
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chelsea U21 Away · Elo 1,523
SPORTA Arena, Stevenage Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tottenham Hotspur U21 win
Tottenham Hotspur U21 winPick
50.3%
Draw
20.1%
Chelsea U21 win
29.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.1%
No38.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.9%
Under 2.525.1%

How much we know

Tottenham Hotspur U21 history43 matches
Chelsea U21 history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Tottenham Hotspur U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,511 against 1,523. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.88 goals a game over 43 matches for Tottenham Hotspur U21, against 1.96 over 46 for Chelsea U21.

  • Chelsea U21 concede fewer

    Tottenham Hotspur U21 concede 1.93 a game, Chelsea U21 1.70.

  • Chelsea U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Tottenham Hotspur U21 matches, against 80% for Chelsea U21. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tottenham Hotspur U21
Chelsea U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.9
ELO
1522.8
43
ELO · Matches
46
1510.9
Current Team ELO
1522.8
1522.8
Current Opponent ELO
1510.9
-11.94
Current ELO Difference
11.94
0.48
Expected score
0.52
43
History Matches
46
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
49.35
Overperformance
51.44
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.70
1.70
Goals for per game
2.00
1.30
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.41
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
46
1.33
PPG
1.57
39.5%
Win rate
47.8%
14.0%
Draw rate
13.0%
46.5%
Loss rate
39.1%
88.4%
Over 1.5 rate
89.1%
65.1%
Over 2.5 rate
80.4%
55.8%
Over 3.5 rate
54.3%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
24
1.69
PPG
1.38
56.3%
Win rate
41.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
12.5%
43.8%
Loss rate
45.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
79.2%
56.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.75
16
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.88
Goals for per game
1.96
86.0%
Scoring rate
82.6%
67.4%
BTTS rate
60.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.67
93.8%
Scoring rate
70.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
46
1.88
Goals Mean
1.96
1.47
Goals Std
1.44
86.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.6%
48.8%
Scored 2+ rate
58.7%
27.9%
Scored 3+ rate
28.3%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.93
Goals against per game
1.70
81.4%
Conceding rate
73.9%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.83
56.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
46
1.93
Conceded Mean
1.70
1.42
Conceded Std
1.59
60.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.8%
32.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.9%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
46
0.91
Result entropy
0.90
1.94
Goal Difference Std
2.56
9.18
Stability score
10.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
46
11
Lead Matches
20
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.87
15
Trailing Matches
14
13.3%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.91
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
1.19
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
1.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.79
Rest days
74.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
21
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.77
20
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.37
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.89
1.53
Portability PPG Range
2.09
46.89
Portability Score
36.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-11.94
PPG-0.24
GF-0.07
GA0.23
PPG3.00
PPG0.31
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate18.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate3.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.51
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.23
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate12.6%
Conceded 3+ rate8.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.62
Stability score-1.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.55
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate6.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.32
Portability PPG Range-0.56
Portability Score10.80
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.77
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO-11.94
Current Opponent ELO11.94
Current ELO Difference-23.89
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tottenham Hotspur U21

W
Middlesbrough U211–2Tottenham Hotspur U2125 Oct · away
Pick: Tottenham Hotspur U21 44% · hit
W
Tottenham Hotspur U212–0Leicester City U2118 Oct · home
Pick: Leicester City U21 46% · missed
D
Tottenham Hotspur U213–3Birmingham City U2131 Aug · home
Pick: Tottenham Hotspur U21 51% · missed
W
Newcastle United U211–3Tottenham Hotspur U2124 Aug · away
Pick: Newcastle United U21 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chelsea U21

D
Chelsea U212–2Liverpool U2124 Oct · home
Pick: Chelsea U21 53% · missed
W
Stoke City U211–2Chelsea U2116 Oct · away
Pick: Chelsea U21 41% · hit
W
Reading0–2Chelsea U2113 Oct · away
Pick: Reading 62% · missed
W
Chelsea U215–4West Ham United U2131 Aug · home
Pick: West Ham United U21 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tottenham Hotspur U21 and Chelsea U21 meet in Premier League 2 Division One on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at SPORTA Arena, Stevenage. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Tottenham Hotspur U21 win 50.3%, draw 20.1%, Chelsea U21 win 29.6%. The pick is Tottenham Hotspur U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.9%. Both teams to score: 61.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.