ScoreProb
Premier League 2 Division One England Regular Season 2026

Crystal Palace U21 vs Everton U21

Crystal Palace U21 Home · Elo 1,513
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Everton U21 Away · Elo 1,474
Crystal Palace Academy Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Crystal Palace U21 win
Crystal Palace U21 winPick
40.8%
Draw
22.2%
Everton U21 win
37.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.0%
No38.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.7%
Under 2.534.3%

How much we know

Crystal Palace U21 history42 matches
Everton U21 history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Crystal Palace U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Crystal Palace U21 are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,513 against 1,474. On rating alone Crystal Palace U21 would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Crystal Palace U21 score more

    1.93 goals a game over 42 matches for Crystal Palace U21, against 1.73 over 48 for Everton U21.

  • Crystal Palace U21 concede fewer

    Crystal Palace U21 concede 1.69 a game, Everton U21 2.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of Crystal Palace U21 matches, against 65% for Everton U21. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Crystal Palace U21
Everton U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1512.5
ELO
1474.1
42
ELO · Matches
48
1512.5
Current Team ELO
1474.1
1474.1
Current Opponent ELO
1512.5
38.41
Current ELO Difference
-38.41
0.56
Expected score
0.44
42
History Matches
48
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.04
51.54
Overperformance
47.41
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
2.40
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.44
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.80
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
48
1.52
PPG
1.19
42.9%
Win rate
33.3%
23.8%
Draw rate
18.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
47.9%
92.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
69.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.6%
52.4%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
27
1.70
PPG
1.04
47.8%
Win rate
25.9%
26.1%
Draw rate
25.9%
26.1%
Loss rate
48.1%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
63.0%
52.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.7%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
23
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.93
Goals for per game
1.73
81.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
64.3%
BTTS rate
68.8%
2.09
Goals for per game
1.48
78.3%
Scoring rate
81.5%
56.5%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
42
History Matches
48
1.93
Goals Mean
1.73
1.45
Goals Std
1.52
81.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
64.3%
Scored 2+ rate
45.8%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
2.09
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.69
Goals against per game
2.00
81.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.35
Goals against per game
2.07
78.3%
Conceding rate
81.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
42
History Matches
48
1.69
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.28
Conceded Std
1.53
52.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.4%
21.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
2.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
48
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
2.19
Goal Difference Std
1.76
2.51
Stability score
6.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
48
18
Lead Matches
11
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.70
16
Trailing Matches
17
25.0%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.95
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
78.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
19
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
21
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
10
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.60
1.77
Portability PPG Range
1.80
42.78
Portability Score
45.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO38.41
PPG0.34
GF0.20
GA-0.31
PPG0.00
PPG0.66
PPG0.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate2.4%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Failed-to-score rate3.2%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate18.5%
Scored 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.94
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.99
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score-3.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate19.7%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate13.2%
Trailing Win Rate0.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.03
Portability Score-2.52
Rest days-0.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.34
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.39
Current Team ELO38.41
Current Opponent ELO-38.41
Current ELO Difference76.81
Expected score0.11
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Crystal Palace U21

W
Newport County1–2Crystal Palace U213 Nov · away
Pick: Newport County 58% · missed
L
Crystal Palace U212–5Southampton U2126 Oct · home
Pick: Crystal Palace U21 40% · missed
L
Crystal Palace U211–4Anderlecht U2114 Oct · home
Pick: Crystal Palace U21 66% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Everton U21

W
Tamworth2–3Everton U213 Nov · away
Pick: Tamworth 65% · missed
L
Shrewsbury2–1Everton U2127 Oct · away
Pick: Shrewsbury 54% · hit
D
Everton U211–1Borussia M'gladbach II20 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia M'gladbach II 48% · missed
W
Everton U212–1Middlesbrough U2116 Oct · home
Pick: Everton U21 49% · hit
L
Solihull Moors1–0Everton U2113 Oct · away
Pick: Solihull Moors 59% · hit

About this match

Crystal Palace U21 and Everton U21 meet in Premier League 2 Division One on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Crystal Palace Academy. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Crystal Palace U21 win 40.8%, draw 22.2%, Everton U21 win 37.0%. The pick is Crystal Palace U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.7%. Both teams to score: 62.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.