ScoreProb
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 11 2026

Cacereño vs Lugo

Cacereño Home · Elo 1,518
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lugo Away · Elo 1,521
Estadio Principe Felipe Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cacereño win
Cacereño winPick
41.7%
Draw
31.6%
Lugo win
26.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.1%
No49.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.9%
Under 2.550.1%

How much we know

Cacereño history61 matches
Lugo history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Cacereño are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,518 against 1,521. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Cacereño score more

    1.33 goals a game over 61 matches for Cacereño, against 1.02 over 60 for Lugo.

  • Defences are close

    Cacereño concede 1.15 a game, Lugo 1.17.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Cacereño matches, against 40% for Lugo. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cacereño
Lugo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.4
ELO
1521.2
61
ELO · Matches
60
1518.4
Current Team ELO
1521.2
1521.2
Current Opponent ELO
1518.4
-2.84
Current ELO Difference
2.84
0.50
Expected score
0.50
61
History Matches
60
0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
50.99
Overperformance
51.56
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.40
1.70
Goals for per game
0.90
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
60
1.44
PPG
1.42
37.7%
Win rate
38.3%
31.1%
Draw rate
26.7%
31.1%
Loss rate
35.0%
75.4%
Over 1.5 rate
65.0%
42.6%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
24.6%
Over 3.5 rate
18.3%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
29
1.57
PPG
1.07
43.3%
Win rate
24.1%
26.7%
Draw rate
34.5%
30.0%
Loss rate
41.4%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.9%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
13.8%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
30
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.33
Goals for per game
1.02
72.1%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.8%
BTTS rate
43.3%
1.47
Goals for per game
0.93
70.0%
Scoring rate
62.1%
46.7%
BTTS rate
48.3%
61
History Matches
60
1.33
Goals Mean
1.02
1.18
Goals Std
0.85
72.1%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
1.7%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.15
Goals against per game
1.17
72.1%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.28
63.3%
Conceding rate
75.9%
61
History Matches
60
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.17
0.96
Conceded Std
1.13
32.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.7%
8.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
60
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.46
0.38
Stability score
1.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
60
20
Lead Matches
16
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.90
14
Trailing Matches
18
21.4%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.02
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
33
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
27
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.32
0.91
Portability PPG Range
0.72
57.13
Portability Score
61.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-2.84
PPG0.03
GF0.31
GA-0.02
PPG0.50
PPG-0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate5.5%
Scored 2+ rate4.4%
Scored 3+ rate14.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.51
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate1.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.58
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score-0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.40
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate3.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.19
Portability Score-4.11
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.19
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO-2.84
Current Opponent ELO2.84
Current ELO Difference-5.68
Expected score-0.01
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cacereño

L
Athletic Club II3–1Cacereño31 Oct · away
Pick: Athletic Club II 50% · hit
W
Cacereño1–0Zamora24 Oct · home
Pick: Cacereño 38% · hit
L
Pontevedra1–0Cacereño18 Oct · away
Pick: Pontevedra 41% · hit
L
Mérida AD2–0Cacereño4 Oct · away
Pick: Mérida AD 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lugo

W
Lugo2–1Mérida AD1 Nov · home
Pick: Mérida AD 40% · missed
L
Real Unión4–1Lugo23 Oct · away
Pick: Real Unión 41% · hit
W
Lugo3–0Deportivo La Coruña II17 Oct · home
Pick: Lugo 42% · hit
W
Lugo3–1UD Logroñés12 Oct · home
Pick: UD Logroñés 39% · missed
W
Unionistas de Salamanca1–3Lugo30 Aug · away
Pick: Unionistas de Salamanca 48% · missed

About this match

Cacereño and Lugo meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Principe Felipe. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Cacereño win 41.7%, draw 31.6%, Lugo win 26.7%. The pick is Cacereño win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.9%. Both teams to score: 50.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.