ScoreProb
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 11 2026

Real Avilés vs Extremadura 1924

Real Avilés Home · Elo 1,498
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Extremadura 1924 Away · Elo 1,627
Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Avilés win
Real Avilés winPick
45.5%
Draw
25.8%
Extremadura 1924 win
28.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.3%
No43.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.8%
Under 2.547.2%

How much we know

Real Avilés history67 matches
Extremadura 1924 history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 20:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Real Avilés are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Extremadura 1924 are rated 129 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,627 against 1,498. On rating alone Extremadura 1924 would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Extremadura 1924 score more

    1.42 goals a game over 67 matches for Real Avilés, against 1.88 over 56 for Extremadura 1924.

  • Extremadura 1924 concede fewer

    Real Avilés concede 1.48 a game, Extremadura 1924 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Real Avilés matches, against 61% for Extremadura 1924. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Avilés
Extremadura 1924
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.4
ELO
1627.1
67
ELO · Matches
56
1498.4
Current Team ELO
1627.1
1627.1
Current Opponent ELO
1498.4
-128.7
Current ELO Difference
128.7
0.32
Expected score
0.68
67
History Matches
56
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.11
48.96
Overperformance
58.39
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.70
1.70
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
56
1.30
PPG
2.00
31.3%
Win rate
57.1%
35.8%
Draw rate
28.6%
32.8%
Loss rate
14.3%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
55.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
27
1.55
PPG
1.37
41.4%
Win rate
29.6%
31.0%
Draw rate
48.1%
27.6%
Loss rate
22.2%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
27.6%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
29
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.42
Goals for per game
1.88
77.6%
Scoring rate
85.7%
59.7%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.19
79.3%
Scoring rate
70.4%
58.6%
BTTS rate
51.9%
67
History Matches
56
1.42
Goals Mean
1.88
1.12
Goals Std
1.30
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
43.3%
Scored 2+ rate
55.4%
13.4%
Scored 3+ rate
33.9%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.48
Goals against per game
1.00
71.6%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.00
72.4%
Conceding rate
63.0%
67
History Matches
56
1.48
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.29
Conceded Std
0.98
47.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
19.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
56
1.00
Result entropy
0.87
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.51
0.14
Stability score
13.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
56
20
Lead Matches
19
55.0%
Lead Win Rate
94.7%
0.65
Lead Points Retention
0.95
21
Trailing Matches
10
33.3%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
30.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.14
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.11
Rest days
84.11
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
39
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.92
23
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.12
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.50
0.84
Portability PPG Range
1.23
60.18
Portability Score
49.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-128.7
PPG-0.70
GF-0.46
GA0.48
PPG0.18
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate8.1%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.46
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate19.2%
Conceded 3+ rate12.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches11
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score-12.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.89
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.40
Lead Points Retention-0.30
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.39
Portability Score10.37
Rest days-7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.12
Current Team ELO-128.7
Current Opponent ELO128.7
Current ELO Difference-257.5
Expected score-0.35
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-9.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Avilés

W
Real Unión0–3Real Avilés31 Oct · away
Pick: Real Avilés 40% · hit
L
Real Avilés1–3UD Logroñés24 Oct · home
Pick: Real Avilés 42% · missed
W
Real Avilés3–0UD Ourense18 Oct · home
Pick: Real Avilés 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Extremadura 1924

W
Extremadura 19243–0Unionistas de Salamanca1 Nov · home
Pick: Extremadura 1924 43% · hit
W
Deportivo La Coruña II0–5Extremadura 192424 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo La Coruña II 41% · missed
D
Extremadura 19242–2Real Unión17 Oct · home
Pick: Extremadura 1924 44% · missed
W
Athletic Club II1–3Extremadura 19244 Oct · away
Pick: Athletic Club II 45% · missed
L
UD Logroñés2–1Extremadura 192431 Aug · away
Pick: UD Logroñés 49% · hit

About this match

Real Avilés and Extremadura 1924 meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 20:15 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Real Avilés win 45.5%, draw 25.8%, Extremadura 1924 win 28.7%. The pick is Real Avilés win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.8%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.