Caernarfon Town vs Holywell
Match result probability Model pick: Caernarfon Town win
Caernarfon Town winPick
56.5%
Draw
22.3%
Holywell win
21.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes63.4%
No36.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.567.7%
Under 2.532.3%
How much we know
Caernarfon Town history63 matches
Holywell history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Caernarfon Town
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.5%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.
Why Caernarfon Town are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Caernarfon Town are rated 49 Elo points higher
Elo 1,593 against 1,544. On rating alone Caernarfon Town would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.95 goals a game over 63 matches for Caernarfon Town, against 2.09 over 47 for Holywell.
-
Defences are close
Caernarfon Town concede 1.46 a game, Holywell 1.49.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
68% of Caernarfon Town matches, against 68% for Holywell. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Holywell@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1593.1
ELO
1544.3
63
ELO · Matches
47
1593.1
Current Team ELO
1544.3
1544.3
Current Opponent ELO
1593.1
48.86
Current ELO Difference
-48.86
0.57
Expected score
0.43
63
History Matches
47
0.08
Residual Mean
0.04
55.73
Overperformance
52.80
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.00
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
3.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.00
1.70
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.50
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.83
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.91
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.75
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.93
Overall performance9 signals 90
63
Matches
47
1.60
PPG
1.72
46.0%
Win rate
51.1%
22.2%
Draw rate
19.1%
31.7%
Loss rate
29.8%
92.1%
Over 1.5 rate
85.1%
68.3%
Over 2.5 rate
68.1%
41.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.7%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
Venue performance10 signals 100
32
Matches
25
1.69
PPG
1.44
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
18.8%
Draw rate
24.0%
31.3%
Loss rate
36.0%
93.8%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
78.1%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
2.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
32
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.95
Goals for per game
2.09
81.0%
Scoring rate
85.1%
58.7%
BTTS rate
63.8%
2.28
Goals for per game
1.56
81.3%
Scoring rate
88.0%
53.1%
BTTS rate
68.0%
63
History Matches
47
1.95
Goals Mean
2.09
1.62
Goals Std
1.78
81.0%
Scored 1+ rate
85.1%
55.6%
Scored 2+ rate
53.2%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
29.8%
2.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.46
Goals against per game
1.49
74.6%
Conceding rate
74.5%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.72
68.8%
Conceding rate
76.0%
63
History Matches
47
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.49
1.26
Conceded Std
1.33
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.4%
15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.4%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
63
History Matches
47
0.96
Result entropy
0.93
2.36
Goal Difference Std
2.27
3.91
Stability score
7.11
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
63
Eligible Matches
47
21
Lead Matches
18
95.2%
Lead Win Rate
94.4%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.94
20
Trailing Matches
13
35.0%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
15.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
1.21
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
26
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.26
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.66
Portability PPG Std
0.86
1.67
Portability PPG Range
2.00
43.21
Portability Score
36.83
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
63
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO48.86
PPG-0.12
GF-0.13
GA-0.03
PPG0.25
PPG1.80
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate6.8%
History Matches16
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate2.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.72
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.83
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate4.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches16
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score-3.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate0.8%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate7.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score6.37
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Current Team ELO48.86
Current Opponent ELO-48.86
Current ELO Difference97.72
Expected score0.14
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.43
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Caernarfon Town
L
Penybont2–0Caernarfon Town6 Nov · away
Pick: Caernarfon Town 38% · missed L
Airbus UK3–2Caernarfon Town30 Oct · away
Pick: Caernarfon Town 48% · missed W
Caernarfon Town3–1Briton Ferry23 Oct · home
Pick: Caernarfon Town 61% · hit W
Flint Town United1–3Caernarfon Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Caernarfon Town 42% · hit L
Caernarfon Town2–3The New Saints31 Aug · home
Pick: The New Saints 46% · hit Holywell
L
Holywell2–3Airbus UK6 Nov · home
Pick: Airbus UK 56% · hit L
Flint Town United5–0Holywell30 Oct · away
Pick: Flint Town United 59% · hit D
Llay Miners Welfare3–3Holywell17 Oct · away
Pick: Holywell 57% · missed L
Airbus UK6–2Holywell31 Aug · away
Pick: Airbus UK 70% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Caernarfon Town and Holywell meet in Welsh Cup on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at The Oval, Caernarfon. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Caernarfon Town win 56.5%, draw 22.3%, Holywell win 21.2%. The pick is Caernarfon Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.7%. Both teams to score: 63.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.