GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Mochdre Sports
Match result probability Model pick: GAP Connah S Quay FC win
GAP Connah S Quay FC winPick
66.2%
Draw
18.6%
Mochdre Sports win
15.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.8%
No44.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.565.7%
Under 2.534.3%
How much we know
GAP Connah S Quay FC history58 matches
Mochdre Sports history0 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours GAP Connah S Quay FC
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,914 matches.
Why GAP Connah S Quay FC are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
GAP Connah S Quay FC are rated 117 Elo points higher
Elo 1,617 against 1,500. On rating alone GAP Connah S Quay FC would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mochdre Sports@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1616.8
ELO
1500.0
58
ELO · Matches
0
1616.8
Current Team ELO
1500.0
1500.0
Current Opponent ELO
1616.8
116.8
Current ELO Difference
-116.8
0.66
Expected score
0.34
58
History Matches
0
0.09
Residual Mean
—
56.73
Overperformance
—
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
—
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
0
1.80
PPG
—
2.80
Goals for per game
—
1.20
Goals against per game
—
60.0%
Win rate
—
10
Matches
0
1.50
PPG
—
1.80
Goals for per game
—
1.00
Goals against per game
—
40.0%
Win rate
—
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
—
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
—
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
—
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals 90
58
Matches
0
1.76
PPG
—
51.7%
Win rate
—
20.7%
Draw rate
—
27.6%
Loss rate
—
84.5%
Over 1.5 rate
—
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
—
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
—
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
0
1.73
PPG
—
50.0%
Win rate
—
23.1%
Draw rate
—
26.9%
Loss rate
—
88.5%
Over 1.5 rate
—
69.2%
Over 2.5 rate
—
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
26
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.97
Goals for per game
—
86.2%
Scoring rate
—
58.6%
BTTS rate
—
2.00
Goals for per game
—
88.5%
Scoring rate
—
65.4%
BTTS rate
—
58
History Matches
0
1.97
Goals Mean
—
1.59
Goals Std
—
86.2%
Scored 1+ rate
—
53.4%
Scored 2+ rate
—
34.5%
Scored 3+ rate
—
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.19
Goals against per game
—
67.2%
Conceding rate
—
1.19
Goals against per game
—
73.1%
Conceding rate
—
58
History Matches
0
1.19
Conceded Mean
—
1.15
Conceded Std
—
36.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
—
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
—
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
—
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
—
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
—
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
—
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
—
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
—
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
—
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
—
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
—
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
58
History Matches
0
0.93
Result entropy
—
2.16
Goal Difference Std
—
6.95
Stability score
—
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
57
Eligible Matches
0
26
Lead Matches
0
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.86
Lead Points Retention
—
12
Trailing Matches
0
33.3%
Non-loss rate
—
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
0
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
—
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
—
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
—
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
—
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.34
Rest days
—
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
23
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
0
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.42
Portability PPG Std
—
1.25
Portability PPG Range
—
54.40
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
58
Clean History Matches
0
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO116.8
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches58
History Matches26
History Matches58
History Matches58
History Matches58
Eligible Matches57
Lead Matches26
Trailing Matches12
Halftime Coverage Matches57
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count9
Eligible Competition Season Count5
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches23
Long Rest History Matches31
Current Team ELO116.8
Current Opponent ELO-116.8
Current ELO Difference233.7
Expected score0.32
History Matches58
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
GAP Connah S Quay FC
W
GAP Connah S Quay FC2–0Flint Town United6 Nov · home
Pick: GAP Connah S Quay FC 68% · hit D
The New Saints0–0GAP Connah S Quay FC31 Oct · away
Pick: The New Saints 53% · missed W
GAP Connah S Quay FC2–0Llandudno24 Oct · home
Pick: GAP Connah S Quay FC 51% · hit W
GAP Connah S Quay FC4–0Porthmadog16 Oct · home
Pick: GAP Connah S Quay FC 72% · hit W
Flint Town United1–2GAP Connah S Quay FC31 Aug · away
Pick: GAP Connah S Quay FC 58% · hit Mochdre Sports
W
Llysfaen0–2Mochdre Sports17 Oct · away
Pick: Llysfaen 50% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Mochdre Sports meet in Welsh Cup on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Essity Stadium, Flint. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: GAP Connah S Quay FC win 66.2%, draw 18.6%, Mochdre Sports win 15.2%. The pick is GAP Connah S Quay FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.7%. Both teams to score: 55.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.