Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians
Match result probability Model pick: Penybont win
Penybont winPick
63.8%
Draw
19.1%
Cardiff Draconians win
17.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes57.4%
No42.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.3%
Under 2.537.7%
How much we know
Penybont history58 matches
Cardiff Draconians history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Penybont
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,914 matches.
Why Penybont are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Penybont are rated 80 Elo points higher
Elo 1,553 against 1,473. On rating alone Penybont would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Cardiff Draconians score more
1.40 goals a game over 58 matches for Penybont, against 1.74 over 38 for Cardiff Draconians.
-
Penybont concede fewer
Penybont concede 1.36 a game, Cardiff Draconians 1.71.
-
Cardiff Draconians games more often go over 2.5 goals
52% of Penybont matches, against 68% for Cardiff Draconians. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cardiff Draconians@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1553.5
ELO
1473.4
58
ELO · Matches
38
1553.5
Current Team ELO
1473.4
1473.4
Current Opponent ELO
1553.5
80.11
Current ELO Difference
-80.11
0.61
Expected score
0.39
58
History Matches
38
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.04
53.40
Overperformance
47.35
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
0.90
Goals for per game
1.90
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.81
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.41
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.21
Overall performance9 signals 90
58
Matches
38
1.47
PPG
1.34
39.7%
Win rate
39.5%
27.6%
Draw rate
15.8%
32.8%
Loss rate
44.7%
70.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.3%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals 100
29
Matches
20
1.48
PPG
1.00
34.5%
Win rate
25.0%
44.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
20.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
62.1%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
27.6%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
13.8%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
29
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.40
Goals for per game
1.74
62.1%
Scoring rate
73.7%
44.8%
BTTS rate
63.2%
1.07
Goals for per game
1.40
58.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
41.4%
BTTS rate
65.0%
58
History Matches
38
1.40
Goals Mean
1.74
1.50
Goals Std
1.41
62.1%
Scored 1+ rate
73.7%
41.4%
Scored 2+ rate
52.6%
19.0%
Scored 3+ rate
31.6%
1.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.36
Goals against per game
1.71
65.5%
Conceding rate
81.6%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.75
58.6%
Conceding rate
75.0%
58
History Matches
38
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.71
1.49
Conceded Std
1.34
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.4%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.3%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
37.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
41.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
37.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
41.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
58
History Matches
38
0.99
Result entropy
0.93
2.12
Goal Difference Std
1.81
1.00
Stability score
7.32
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
58
Eligible Matches
38
15
Lead Matches
8
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
1.00
18
Trailing Matches
17
16.7%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
83.26
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.84
26
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.18
Portability PPG Range
1.33
50.06
Portability Score
46.88
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
58
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO80.11
PPG0.12
GF-0.34
GA-0.35
PPG0.48
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Failed-to-score rate11.6%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate16.4%
Failed-to-score rate16.4%
History Matches20
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.68
History Matches20
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.96
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.41
History Matches20
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score-6.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.16
Portability Score3.18
Rest days0.78
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO80.11
Current Opponent ELO-80.11
Current ELO Difference160.2
Expected score0.23
History Matches20
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Penybont
W
Penybont2–0Caernarfon Town6 Nov · home
Pick: Caernarfon Town 38% · missed W
Cardiff MET0–5Penybont31 Oct · away
Pick: Penybont 44% · hit W
Afan Lido2–3Penybont18 Oct · away
Pick: Penybont 52% · hit D
Cambrian & Clydach2–2Penybont31 Aug · away
Pick: Cambrian & Clydach 41% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Cardiff Draconians
W
Cardiff Draconians2–0Afan Lido31 Oct · home
Pick: Afan Lido 44% · missed L
Trethomas Bluebirds3–1Cardiff Draconians23 Oct · away
Pick: Trethomas Bluebirds 45% · hit W
Radnor Valley1–3Cardiff Draconians17 Oct · away
Pick: Radnor Valley 39% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Penybont and Cardiff Draconians meet in Welsh Cup on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Bryntirion Park, Bridgend. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Penybont win 63.8%, draw 19.1%, Cardiff Draconians win 17.1%. The pick is Penybont win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.3%. Both teams to score: 57.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.